Latest Naked Capitalism article says basically all the same points that have been discussed here, like Trump extending the deadline due to his fear of Iran's response (and almost certainly not Iranian requests, as Iran still seems to not be communicating with the West at all), as well as the global economic damage caused by this war

Based on the current usage rates of munitions and publicly known figures, it's projected that the West will run out of several key weapons by the end of April (and some in just a week or two). For the Zionists, they'll be either fully or mostly out of Arrow 2/3 and David's Sling interceptors as well as their own supply of THAADs, as well as Blue Sparrow air-launched ballistic missiles and a few other kinds of missiles. The Gulf states will be out of THAADs and Patriots, and the US will be out of ATACMS + PrSM and their own operated THAADs. This is, of course, on top of their rapidly falling Tomahawk and JASSM supplies; they're something like 1/3 depleted in both cases (I've seen a lot of different numbers floating around, some higher and some lower than this) and it's unlikely that they'll want to use literally all of them given that current production rates are low.

I'm personally concluding that unless there's extreme rationing by the West on both the offensive and defensive front (AKA, just sitting there and not dealing significant damage to Iran and also not intercepting their missiles while the global economy continues to fall apart, which is synonymous with losing in my book), if Iran makes it to the end of April then there's really only four options remaining, each more unattractive than the last:

1. Boots on the ground in some sense. Almost certainly not a major ground invasion like in the Iraq War (would take many months to set up and is probably outright impossible given how US transport capabilities have fallen since the early 2000s) but using the Marines and Special Ops is at least plausible. Could potentially have limited tactical victories - blowing up important targets that missiles can't get to, maybe killing certain figures - but hard to figure out how it could knit together into a strategic victory.

2. Flying aircraft directly over Iranian territory to use their very plentiful supply of gravity+glide bombs. The combination of Iran demonstrably having the means to shoot down aircraft even on their border (at Chabahar most recently, a southern port city), refueling planes getting hit on the ground and sky, and Middle Eastern bases becoming ever more precarious to fly aircraft out of, and the sheer logistical/maintenance strain on the aircraft points to me that Western air missions are becoming much less frequent than at the beginning of the war, and that even under intense aerial punishment, Iran could gradually attrit the US air fleet to the point where the cost is simply seen as too great, especially as these planes are getting very hard to build with Chinese mineral restrictions.

3. Nukes. What would happen after that is hard to predict, but it seems at least plausible to me given how deep and plentiful the missile cities are and how decentralized Iran is that Iran could have enough capability left over to second strike conventionally in such a way that Occupied Palestine and much of the Middle East becomes uninhabitable, especially as interception capability is now very low, and fossil fuel production there is brought to almost zero for many years, and then we're in even more unprecedented and hard to predict territory. The US might deem this a preferable option to accepting Iran's demands, though - better no Middle Eastern oil and gas at all than a petroyuan?

4. Just sit there and do nothing while the global economy falls apart, denying Iran a victory in the "official" sense but otherwise taking constant hits from them; perhaps they try and go back to the regime change tack or maybe use whatever agents are left inside Iran to attempt to cause chaos.

The only other major thing to point out is that Yves has mentioned the debate over whether Marines will even be used, as Ken Klippenstein has recently said isn't going to happen. Others, like Larry Johnson, have essentially stated that even if the Marines aren't ready (and they might be, who outside the US military can say definitively?) then Special Ops are ready. It still remains very unclear where these Special Ops could be sent to have a meaningful impact. If anything, Kharg seems increasingly unlikely just because that's what the US keeps talking about doing and Trump loves feeling like he's expertly deceiving his foes, so others have suggested Qeshm Island, or Bandar Abbas, or Chabahar, or even somewhere more unexpected and dangerous like some sort of Iranian nuclear facility or missile city or something like that.

Personally, I think they're gonna try and coordinate a miniature shock-and-awe campaign where a lot of chaos happens simultaneously in a bunch of different places and hope that overwhelms Iran's ability to protect any one particular place, which would then... uh... well, it's still not really clear how that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz or meaningfully change Iran's demands, but it would look pretty impressive, potentially.

Given Trump's pattern of escalating after the markets close and then deescalating just before they open, I expect the next 48 hours or so to be a pretty chaotic time even by the standards of this war. Buckle in.