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Thank you for taking the time to respond! As per usual, language fails us because "vacant home" sure doesn't mean the same thing to everyone saying it.
Is NYC (taking your example) prone to low-density zoning? Just looking at induced scarcity vs geographic scarcity, there's a possibility that everyone that desires to live in NYC just can't. I'm no expert, obviously.
Say we did remove zoning restrictions and builders could go bananas, what is their incentive to build if they expect vacancy? No one wants to finance new builds if they won't fill. Developers want low vacancy as much as landlords do. It sounds like zoning changes would be best paired with subsidy programs for individual home buyers or something to allow individuals priority over corporations.
NYC itself doesn't have much (although it still has some! see image below) low-density zoning, but their suburbs sure do. The city itself also has a lot of other bureaucratic barriers to development that result in it having abysmal housing construction rates.
As for vacancy, yes, the threat of not being able to sell is what stops builders from building too much. For example, it's the reason no one's even trying to build the Burj Khalifa in Bakersfield. But if you make it legal and reasonably easy to build, yes, people will build.
Perhaps Tokyo is the best example. Biggest city in the world, and yet it's actually relatively affordable, thanks largely to good land use policy:
I think the key idea is to not have government bureaucrats or existing homeowners or landlords decide whether there's "enough" housing, but rather let builders determine if there's unmet demand. If there is unmet demand, they will build if you let them. If there truly is enough housing in a certain city, then you don't need to tell builders not to build -- they'll simply stop building if they sense there's not enough demand for it.
You're a treasure and you've given me a lot to digest. Have a great day!