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A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is from this Bloomberg article, depicting world oil inventories plunging towards the operational floor at which pipelines and refineries cease operating, which is expected to occur in September at current rates.


A pretty short preamble below, in spoiler tags.

summaryThe conflict continues to be kept at a relatively low level despite Iran's fiery encounters with US destroyers. I think it's only becoming increasingly obvious that the US is trying to cobble together some major clandestine operation mixing special forces, the air force, and naval destroyers to either seize Iranian uranium, take control of Iranian seaports, or both. Given a) how the Istafan op went, b) further Iranian preparations around sensitive sites, and c) a seeming strengthening of Iranian air defense around the Persian Gulf (multiple drones and manned aircraft have squawked emergency codes and potentially been shot down over the last few weeks), I find it difficult to imagine this operation fulfilling its objective, and even if did somehow work, why the removal of uranium would necessitate Iran ending the blockade and the war. On that note, I've seen reports that Iran is saying that if the US attacks their oil tankers again, they will resume firing on US military bases.

Additionally, Aragchi has stated that not only has Iran's missile/launcher stockpiles not gone down from pre-conflict, it has actually increased by 20%. This is unsurprising given the total war that Iran is now in; all resources within reason must now be funnelling towards drone and missile production.

Atrocities in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon are continuing. The toll that FPV drones are taking on the common Zionist soldiery are quickly becoming apparent, as we are receiving ever-increasing amounts of footage of vehicles and gatherings of soldiers being struck by Hezbollah's drones. The casualty situation is, as expected, being hidden, but any kind of serious occupation of even the border villages of southern Lebanon (let alone up to the Litani) seems unsustainable.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 109 points 6 days ago

This was the total mobilisation of all far-right forces in the UK that Tommy Robinson claims was "millions".

That's it, that's the current total forces of the far right that they're able to actually mobilise with a year of planning and mossad's money to put it up on Nakba day as a distraction from the pro-palestine protests.

They've got fucking nothing. The rest of the UK hogs are just disillusioned reactionaries that want a better life and are successfully being manipulated, they're not true believers and I don't believe it's possible to mobilise them.

[-] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 37 points 6 days ago

The UK hasn't got the sauce for a fash mobilization on the streets. it simply votes it in where the decaying pensioner class can exact their fury on the specters of baristas and trans furries manufactured by GB News

[-] supafuzz@hexbear.net 40 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

It's millions if you individually count all the brainworms that are driving the bodies

[-] THEPH0NECOMPANY@hexbear.net 33 points 6 days ago

That's it? I've seen campus protests as large as this

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[-] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 83 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

What a show

Footage of the mid air collision between a pair of Navy Super Hornets/Growlers during the Gunfighter Skies Air Show at Mountain Home Air Force Base moments ago.

[-] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 39 points 6 days ago

The USAF doesn't make these fuckin things anymore and since al aqsa flood they've lost four to pilot error alone.

This one is especially egregious coz what do you mean you sent your few hyper-specialised aircraft to do some fucking loop-de-loops whilst your president is about to send you back to battle 😭😭😭

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[-] take_five_moments@hexbear.net 41 points 6 days ago

what a beautiful mating ritual nature is healing

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[-] SummerIsTooWarm@hexbear.net 39 points 6 days ago

(Even if they are SEAD planes) So sad, imagine all the girl's school a they will never bomb :'(

[-] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 32 points 6 days ago

Imagine all the girls schools they won't ever get to support the bombing of :'(

[-] NephewAlphaBravo@hexbear.net 41 points 6 days ago

growlers are the anti-antiair ones right? tony-cheer

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[-] pierre_delecto@hexbear.net 37 points 6 days ago

Hope the ground is okay

[-] very_poggers_gay@hexbear.net 32 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

how many 100's of millions of dollars worth of irreplaceable military tech was this ? rust-darkness

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[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 97 points 6 days ago

Rural indigenous communities have surrounded Evo Morales' residence to protect him. Leaked docs (attached below) show US armed forces & Bolivian police preparing a joint operation to kidnap him & massacre villagers. "If we surrender now, how will our future generations live?"

[-] SkingradGuard@hexbear.net 34 points 6 days ago

The absurd justification is he's a narco terrorist and a pdfile

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[-] thelastaxolotl@hexbear.net 78 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

Gustavo Petro on Bolivia wiphala

Bolivia is experiencing a popular insurrection.

It is the response to geopolitical arrogance.

Latin America is a diverse and different civilization; it cannot be homogenized from any corner of the planet.

Latin America and the Caribbean must be heard by the world, looking straight ahead in peace, and speaking with frankness.

My government is willing, if invited, to seek peaceful formulas for resolving the Bolivian political crisis.

There should be no political prisoners anywhere in the Americas; we must build a deep, multicolored democracy in our civilization that dates back 60,000 years in the Americas, but also comes from the ancestral Mediterranean, black Africa, and the deserts of the Sahara.

The legend said that the American jaguar would awaken if the condor was attacked, and the jaguar has awakened in popular consciousness.

In Panama, I spoke with the President of Bolivia about his father, Paz Zamora, the first Latin American progressivism, and his time in exile in Bogotá and Panama, where he received visits from General Torrijos and the M19 with Carlos Vidales, the son of the poet.

May that memory fill him today with love for his people and open the door to dialogue to transform Bolivia into an ever-deeper and more sovereign democracy, profoundly Latin American.

https://x.com/petrogustavo/status/2056067416518783090

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[-] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 71 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

Milei's 29-month cumulative inflation in Argentina hit 304% in April, surpassing his predecessor Macri's full-term (4 year) 296% for the first time.

[-] vovchik_ilich@hexbear.net 74 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

Reminder that in the period between the end of WW2 and Perestroika, the USSR had a grand total of 0% inflation. Through socialist economic planning, prices become a policy, not a harmful uncertainty. In 1950, 1L of milk costed 36 kopecks, in 1985 it costed 32. In that timespan, monthly salaries went from 64 rubles to 190 rubles.

Imagine how fucking calm life has to be knowing that there will be no economic crisis, that there will be no price increases. Imagine a society managing to triple the purchase power of goods of their citizens over the span of 35 years. I'm in Spain, and modest estimates of purchase power since 2006 give decreases of 15% for the median worker.

Fuck capitalism, long live socialist economic planning.

[-] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 45 points 6 days ago

Like what the fuck even happens to normal life when inflation reaches those levels? 3 to 4% is a "crisis" in my cushy world of the imperial core. If our food was jumping by 100x that amount over that time the whole thing would collapse.

[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 36 points 6 days ago

People started eating literal donkey meat because they can't buy normal meat, there were literal so-called journalists eating donkey meat and almost vomiting to show it's "good" all because they support milei, all live on tv.

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[-] Parzivus@hexbear.net 41 points 6 days ago

Remember all the people who said this guy's policies were actually working? lol

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[-] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 66 points 6 days ago

Wouldn't it be easier at this point to just pretend that Hormuz isn't closed, instead of reminding everyone that it is? At least for market manipulation purposes. Except right before Trump actually wants to restart the attacks.

[-] hotcouchguy@hexbear.net 50 points 6 days ago

Randomly insisting "TIME IS OF THE ESSENSE!" months into a completely avoidable crisis is an all-time classic. amazing stuff

[-] DirtyPair@hexbear.net 40 points 6 days ago

Wouldn't it be easier at this point to just pretend that Hormuz isn't closed

he already tried that!

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[-] Rojo27@hexbear.net 36 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

I'm going to destroy an entire civilizationtrump-kaneki

I don't want to kill peopletrump-anguish

I'm not going to leave any of them aroundtrump-drenched

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[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 71 points 6 days ago

Political asylum application being processed for Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz in Argentina. Milei would grant him political asylum if the operations in El Alto fail. The democratic mechanism is the resignation of Rodrigo Paz , and new elections must be called within three months with a transitional government . All personnel of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) and the Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ) must be removed to guarantee the participation of all political parties that were banned.

[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 52 points 6 days ago

His entire goverment is collapsing just 6 months after election, impressive how when 50% of the population doesn't participate on an election and a guy gets elected with just 25% of the populat vote, his goverment doesn't last very long.

[-] duderium@hexbear.net 38 points 6 days ago

Half the people in the USA don’t vote in federal elections tho 😔

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[-] MostImportantElection@hexbear.net 41 points 6 days ago
[-] Evilphd666@hexbear.net 27 points 6 days ago

I really don't know why Putin is holding his punches but I'm just an armchair general.

[-] TreadOnMe@hexbear.net 30 points 6 days ago

Partially because they can't push without a mass mobilization, which puts the popularity of the war (which is popular to the majority of Russians, at least at the moment) in jeopardy, partially because any kind of offensive, even an overwhelming one, is an extremely risky gamble, that even if successful will lead to the death of tens of thousands, partially because much like for the West, Ukraine at this point is a testing ground for modern military tech and tactics, which Russia can then use to improve their military capabilities for any potential outright conflict with NATO, and partially because spooking the Europeans into outright mobilization, as opposed to trickling in their mentally ill and ideologically motivated, isn't really on the Russian to-do list, they would rather go back to trading with them, even if that will never happen.

Mostly however, it is because it doesn't as actually affect anything anymore, particularly those in the Russian oligarchy. It's like the same reason we won't stop fighting wars, they do not affect those in charge. There was a short period of time when that wasn't true, when Ukraine had a military force that could contest Russia and threaten their government, but that likely hasn't been the case anymore for over a year now. Better to keep the front lines open, minimize having to deal with outright partisians.

We'll see if it works out for them, if it becomes more like an infected wound as opposed to a quarantine.

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[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 21 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

Ukrainian strikes don't actually accomplish much, as the above article itself mentions, and Russia's running a far larger and far more successful (as in, hitting actual targets and not civilians) strike campaign on Ukraine. it just doesn't get as much coverage.

There isn't necessarily that much punch-pulling going on, unless you believe Russia should just adopt American tactics and start razing entire cities to the ground. Currently, the casualties they're inflicting on Ukraine are so severe as to be functionally tantamount to genocide - this is not meant as a critique of Russia, but rather the Ukrainian government for just deciding to feed their entire male population into a meat grinder with no concern for the future, but at the end of the day, the effects of this amount of people dying, whether as combatants or civilians, aren't that different. Demographic collapse in post-war Ukraine is basically already baked in, and every month this drags on further, the post-war scenario becomes worse and worse. There aren't a lot of moves for Russia to make beyond "just do more genocide" - they did the strike campaign on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and did that deter the Ukrainian government? Well, no, so the only thing left to do is to just finish it off and let all of Ukraine freeze to death next winter, I guess? They're hitting Ukrainian logistics to the point that soldiers on the frontline are starting to starve. They've devastated the Ukrainian economy, but there's still money coming in from the West (without which Ukraine wouldn't be able to do fundamental things like pay government employees, let alone prosecute a war - and the government is already screwing people out of pay, by for example keeping a lot of soldiers officially as missing-in-action rather than killed so they don't have to pony up for pensions to the families). They're constantly hitting Ukrainian industry, but equipment keeps coming in from the West - Ukraine's borders are vast enough that effectively stopping all supply isn't really viable, and Russia throwing a ton of Oreshniks at industrial sites throughout Europe, while it would be pretty cool, isn't necessarily the wisest move in the long term. The Ukrainians have also openly bragged about assembling drones in civilian apartments - so there's no way to actually shut that production down without, again, razing the country to the ground and carrying out an actual American-style genocide-by-air.

And as for stopping these attacks specifically - the simple reality is that there is no 100% counter to drone and missile strikes - you can't intercept everything, and you can't fully suppress the enemy's ability to launch them. The Iran war should have been a pretty thorough demonstration of this - the US and Israel had some of the most advanced air defense systems around, and yet still took a ton of hits. They ran a very extensive air interdiction campaign, and yet seemingly didn't degrade Iranian missile capability in any meaningful manner. The same advantages that Iran enjoyed against the American air campaign that we get hyped up about, are also ones that Ukraine has against Russia (to a lesser extent since it's not such a mountainous country, but there's still plenty of forests and tiny villages to hide out in, and the Russian airforce isn't anywhere near as big, so it kind of evens out), and that's something we just have to accept - technological developments don't get to only benefit the guys we like and do nothing for the other guys. That war and the broader Middle Eastern conflicts involving Israel are relevant for another reason too - one of the main "taking the gloves off" moves pro-Russian commentators are constantly going on about is striking decision making centers, and yet we have a thorough demonstration of several years of the Israelis doing exactly that, only to end up with Iran and Hezbollah still standing and fighting them. So, no, decapitation strikes are not some magical kung fu technique that disables the enemy.

This is just the nature of modern war - you're going to get hit. The post-WW1 "bomber will always get through" theory was false at the time, because in reality the aircraft technology of the period couldn't really facilitate that - but now, the technology of drones and missiles has gotten to the point where they will actually always get through. In a modern war, against a country of sufficient size and economic development, you're going to be bombed - if the US, the country which led the way on air interdiction and developed an entire doctrine around it, didn't manage to successfully run an interdiction campaign against Iran, then no-one's going to be able to, except maybe China in some years. It's just the material reality - Western military commentators are the ones deluding themselves that there's some magical tech widget they could invent to prevent this, but it would behoove us to not fall into that same pattern. They were the ones who spent several years going "well, drones don't actually change the game in a war against a real country (read: "not slavic"), since our superior airforce would just bomb out the enemy's ability to launch drones!" - and, well, the US tried that, and failed thoroughly. There's no magical solution, you just have to accept that you're going to get bombed, and build up the capacity to bomb the enemy even more.

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[-] ziggurter@hexbear.net 53 points 6 days ago

A piece about recent damage assessments of U.S. military infrastructure in the Gulf region during the war on Iran.

The Damage You Can’t Hide by Robert Pape

Select excerptsAll emphasis is from the original article.

Over the past several days, satellite imagery, leaked intelligence assessments, and independent reporting have begun revealing the extent of Iranian missile and drone strikes on American and Gulf infrastructure during the conflict. The images matter because they reveal something deeper than battlefield destruction.

They reveal the widening gap between tactical success and strategic success.

The United States demonstrated it could repeatedly strike Iran from the air. But Iran demonstrated something equally important: it could impose meaningful military and political costs on the American position in the Gulf without closing the Strait of Hormuz, without invading neighboring states, and without defeating the United States militarily in any conventional sense.

That distinction may become one of the defining strategic lessons of the war.

...if Iran can continue threatening American bases, logistics hubs, energy infrastructure, and naval operations after repeated U.S. air campaigns, then short bursts of bombing are unlikely to produce decisive strategic outcomes.

Instead, they produce the exact dynamic I have described for months as the Escalation Trap: each round of coercion increases pressure for further escalation because neither side achieves durable strategic resolution.

Relatively weaker regional powers armed with precision missiles, drones, hardened infrastructure, and dispersed launch systems may increasingly be able to blunt portions of American intervention advantages without defeating the United States outright.

That is a profound strategic shift.

What makes this moment so dangerous is that much of official Washington still appears psychologically unprepared for it.

...several Gulf states have become increasingly cautious about facilitating expanded American operations against Iran. They understand something fundamental: geography does not change.

Iran will remain their neighbor long after American carrier groups rotate home.

Once policymakers accept that tactical military success has failed to produce strategic resolution, pressure grows inside Washington for expanded escalation. If short bombing campaigns fail, advocates demand longer campaigns. If airpower alone proves insufficient, pressure shifts toward broader targeting, expanded regional operations, cyber escalation, maritime confrontation, or eventually some form of ground commitment tied to securing missile sites or nuclear infrastructure.

That is the “trap” in the Escalation Trap.

The logic of coercion begins consuming the logic of restraint.

The debate in Washington is no longer really about whether the war succeeded.

It is increasingly about whether the establishment in Washington is prepared to escalate further simply to avoid acknowledging that limited coercion failed to restore the old regional balance.

The question is whether even overwhelming American military power still reliably translates into political control.

The deeper issue is no longer whether the United States can punish adversaries militarily.

The deeper issue is whether punishment alone still produces political control.

[-] culpritus@hexbear.net 36 points 6 days ago

Relatively weaker regional powers armed with precision missiles, drones, hardened infrastructure, and dispersed launch systems may increasingly be able to blunt portions of American intervention advantages without defeating the United States outright.

We are the only ones with clarity of purpose.

soleimani-amused khomeini

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[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 49 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

The 16 de Julio district of El Alto reacts and mobilizes after the violent police repression.

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[-] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 26 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

Ouch! Trump must not be happy rn.

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[-] uSSRI@hexbear.net 19 points 6 days ago
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this post was submitted on 11 May 2026
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