[-] geikei@hexbear.net 15 points 1 week ago

The SU-57 flying in Zhuhai is an advertisement for other buyers, not China. And the credible rumor is that a deal was signed. Most likely with Algeria.

Beyond nuclear submarine tech (Russia ahead) and Jet engines (Russia slightly ahead), China really doesnt need anything Russia has in any notable quantities (quantities Russia cant even put out for sale atm). Su-57 is great but its not a great fit for the pacific theater compared to the j20 and j35 . China will be churning out ~200 5th gen airframes of those two combined per year from 2025 onwards either way

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 18 points 1 week ago

Regarding countries like Iran or even Syria i agree. And we have seen a new Chinese anti-drone laser based AD in the recent Khamenei sermon. But Lebanon is at the doorstep of the US and Israel and in a very unstable situation, with the Lebanese army and civil structure quite infiltrated with west sympathisers and even Mossad. Giving modern AD systems to Hezbollah carries a ton of risk of them falling into the wrong hands eventualy. Especially since these are the same AD systems China will relly upon in any pacific or Taiwanese straight conflict in the coming years if it happens. Not that if those dangers werent present China would be giving modern military tech and systems away in "US designated terrorist groups" but its a big hurdle that makes that convo impossible

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 16 points 1 month ago

The USSR coming closer to nuking China than arguably any other country has since WW2 didnt help

Also

why post colonial bourgeois nationalism flared up in border struggles with Vietnam and China, and now regrettably we have a china that continues many of these trends.

China has diplomaticaly resolved the large majority of the border and maritime disputes it found itself in with the establishment of the PRC due to the massive changes from decolonial movements in the region, constantly changing and uncertain borders for China in the previous period, lack of border treaties with its neighbors before 1949. Often by surrendering the majority of the disputed ereas to the neighbouring country. Since its inception the PRC resolved border disputes with Vietnam, Myanmar, Nepal, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Mongolia, North Korea, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Russia without maximalist demands, without domination through coercion and without lasting negative impact on their relations (from that aspect at least).

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 17 points 1 month ago

This problem is exacerbated by the fact there is a complete disconnect between what the actual state of the USN is and what the general public think the state of the USN is.

The general public are convinced the USN is still by far the most powerful navy in the world with no one even able to compete and so they are not really cognisant of the very real issues facing the USN today. If the public don't really know about these issues then they're not going to vote for politicians who know or care about these issues which exacerbates things even more.

The public will hear the USN has 11 aircraft carriers and assume the USN can send all 11 out to pummel whatever poor country is on the other end of the barrel when in reality the USN doesn't even have 11 carrier air wings due to budgetary conditions and is currently undergoing a severe carrier shortage and quite literally had to divert an entire carrier strike group whose original mission was to perform FONOPs in the South China Sea over to the Red Sea to deal with the Houthis last year because there was literally nothing else available to send. That's how bad things have gotten.

The public has no idea about how there will be a severe cruiser shortage in the coming years once the Ticonderoga-class is forced to retire without any replacement due to CG(X) falling flat on its face years ago. The USN's stop-gap "replacement" for these cruisers is the Flight III Arleigh Burke-class destroyer but even then it's less capable in terms of VLS complement. The Arleigh Burke-class destroyer is at the very limit of its original design and yet the USN has no replacement for it yet with DDG(X) delayed as it is.

Meanwhile, the PLAN's actual capabilities are increasing at a blistering rate, with destroyers like the Type 052D being very capable in their own right and cruisers like the Type 055 having practically no proper equal in the USN's inventory aside from their own cruisers that are about to be retired. And yet the public perception of the PLAN is simply a big navy that comprises of hundreds upon hundreds of useless and tiny patrol vessels with no big capital ships equivalent to those in the USN's inventory. Meanwhile the Chinese naval industry is nowhere close to sprinting. If anything, it’s moving at a rather conservative pace. They’re producing single carriers and single-digit submarines out of yards which could churn out many times that, but then again the PLAN loves its steady iterative cycles. After they’ve settled on a mature design, then you’ll start seeing mass production the way they printed frigates and destroyers. But they are in no hurry to produce large numbers of subpar vessels. It’s much more of a jog than a sprint.

This massive overestimation of American capabilities and a serious underestimation of Chinese capabilities is what is worsening the issue so badly in the US. The public is convinced the USN alone could steamroll the entirety of China's military in an engagement over Taiwan when in actuality the combined efforts of the USN + USMC + USAF would arguably barely even be able to hold the Chinese off at this rate. If there is no sense of concern or urgency in the public's eyes, there will never be a sense of concern or urgency in Congress which is why for the past few decades the USN has been raising alarm bell after alarm bell only for Congress to basically completely dismiss them.

If this does not change soon, by the 2030s you are likely going to see a PLAN that overmatches the USN in both capability, quantity and tonnage. If that happens, it'll be too late for a course correction. The US will be forced to relinquish the Western Pacific to China since they will simply lack the capability to challenge them. Or provoke a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in order to start a nuclear war

This harkens very closely back to the attitude and position of the RN with respect to the USN back during the pre-WW2 era. The RN still held the advantage in most areas, tonnage especially, but the USN was catching up fast. Now, the USN is where the RN was and the PLAN is where the USN was

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 14 points 5 months ago

Ignoring the freaking out over the dollar hegemony Kaplya thankfully brings to every post this seems like a simple calculation for China: By the time this pipeline is fully opperational China plans and most likely will be so deep and ahead in renewables and scaled up energy storage that NG needs will be limited and mostly for heating, power peaking and covered by even current ammounts of NG imports. With this they will have to commit to huge amounts of imports till 2050 , less diversified country and source wise than now and with pipeline that can easily become a target for foreign sabotage in many scenarios. Also we dont even know how the Ukrainian war will end so the exact state of Russia and global and regional geopolitics post Ukranian war are a huge variable that China would like to be more certain about before starting a project like this that will end surely after said war and conflict

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 16 points 7 months ago

Some scetches of the incident by the animation director of The Boy and the Heron, Takeshi Honda

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 17 points 8 months ago

Xirxes ordered Huawei engineers to whip silicon with iron chains to speed up advanced semiconductor development, sources close to the CCP tell Bloomberg

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 16 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

Also its beyond meaningless when you consider that at most idk 3% of the population of Xinjiang and 1% in Tibet is considering themselves to be occupied by China and are remotely likely to participate or aid in an armed struggle against the CPC, even at the best possible conditions

Like sure, Tibetians have a right to engage in an armed anti-colonial struggle or kickstart an indeginous liberation movement ok. You probably couldnt even fill an NBA stadium with those willing so what does that leave their lib free Tibet dreams. The CIA was trying to recruit and instigate an anti-chinese sessesionist movement last century and they gave up because they couldnt find enough willing Tibetians to get the project off the ground. And they had a budget of dozens and dozens of millions to pay off poor ass Tibetians and they still couldnt find any fertile sessesionist sentiment. And thats on record

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 16 points 1 year ago

They prob have some 10k of them and they fired what? 100?

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 17 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Basicaly very serious and dedicated ideological lessons and training for new members. In marxist theory, history, organizing etc. Often taking many months. With each new member being assigned ,alone or in group, in-party mentors and guides for a period. background checks. Often there is some vetting and crosschecking with close friends or family being also members. Very tight security in their protests and organizing events. Communication about important matters or decisions being done still in analog, often with pen and paper and face to face messangers. Very careful , almost to the point of being paranoid, of phones and lines being tapped or listened to, especially on higher levels. Also a large % of members still have 3-4 decades of organizational experience. They can sniff out sus behavior

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 14 points 1 year ago

what relationship? With the USSR ? That had almost irreversibly went to shit by the time Deng got on the driving seat

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geikei

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