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"Even within the coding, it's not working well," said Smiley. "I'll give you an example. Code can look right and pass the unit tests and still be wrong. The way you measure that is typically in benchmark tests. So a lot of these companies haven't engaged in a proper feedback loop to see what the impact of AI coding is on the outcomes they care about. Lines of code, number of [pull requests], these are liabilities. These are not measures of engineering excellence."

Measures of engineering excellence, said Smiley, include metrics like deployment frequency, lead time to production, change failure rate, mean time to restore, and incident severity. And we need a new set of metrics, he insists, to measure how AI affects engineering performance.

"We don't know what those are yet," he said.

One metric that might be helpful, he said, is measuring tokens burned to get to an approved pull request – a formally accepted change in software. That's the kind of thing that needs to be assessed to determine whether AI helps an organization's engineering practice.

To underscore the consequences of not having that kind of data, Smiley pointed to a recent attempt to rewrite SQLite in Rust using AI.

"It passed all the unit tests, the shape of the code looks right," he said. It's 3.7x more lines of code that performs 2,000 times worse than the actual SQLite. Two thousand times worse for a database is a non-viable product. It's a dumpster fire. Throw it away. All that money you spent on it is worthless."

All the optimism about using AI for coding, Smiley argues, comes from measuring the wrong things.

"Coding works if you measure lines of code and pull requests," he said. "Coding does not work if you measure quality and team performance. There's no evidence to suggest that that's moving in a positive direction."

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[-] shads@lemy.lol 10 points 7 hours ago

What's the pathway that you see from the current slop machine to something that will provide a Return on Investment. I haven't heard anyone credible willing to go out on the limb of saying that there is one, but maybe you will convince me.

[-] org@lemmy.org -4 points 6 hours ago

I think when you introduce a question like that you’ve already said that no matter what the person answers, you will find a way to argue against it. So, I’m choosing not to interact with you.

[-] shads@lemy.lol 7 points 6 hours ago

The beauty of the scientific method is that it can change when presented with new data or a novel interpretation of existing data. I much prefer science to hype and feelings. You provide me accurate convincing arguments for how we get from the current system to an actual Artificial Intelligence, or something that roughly approximates it I am all ears. My take is that AI is the new cold fusion, it's always going to be a few years and a few hundred billion dollars away from reality. But what do I know, I'm just an idiot on the internet.

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this post was submitted on 17 Mar 2026
373 points (98.2% liked)

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