The conspiracy part that imo is legit is that his ear was not hit. I've seen bullet wounds take chunks out of people, and it's not a clean cut where you can just stitch it back together with minimal scarring. The bullet either removes a chunk wholesale, or the tissue is violently torn and leaves a very noticeable scar. He has no missing chunk or scar on his ear.

The problem is it was campaign gold for him to claim he 'took a bullet' for his beliefs, and his followers jumped on that, and now he can't just say, "I wasn't actually shot, I just hurt my ear when SS tackled me tee hee sorrrrrryyyyy", so his followers are running to thinking the entire thing could have been staged. I'm sure some of them who are having buyer's remorse would love to pivot to claiming they were duped by an elaborate conspiracy, rather than having to own responsibility for electing him because they themselves are shitty people.