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this post was submitted on 26 Sep 2023
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Programming
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As a veteran, there's always a new piece of technology about to make me obsolete.
I've been made obsolete a dozen times now. It's funny how many people still cold call me asking for my help on things.
I'm sure they'll all get the memo that I'm obsolete this time. /s
Where I grew up the loggers said the same thing. Sure there are still loggers, but teams that had 30 workers now have 6.
If you don't think LLM and/or AI isn't going to be used to put people out of work to keep the cash flow going to the rich I don't know what to tell you.
The logger analogy is a misunderstanding of what people with a degree in CS do. Most become software engineers. They're not loggers, they're architects who occasionally have to cut their own logs.
They've spent decades reducing the amount of time they have to spend logging only to be continually outpaced by the growth of demand from businesses and complexity of the end product. I don't think we've reached a peak there yet, if anything the capabilities of AI are opening up even more demand for even more software.
But, ultimately, coding is only a fraction of the job and any halfway decent CS program teaches programming as a means to practice computer science and software engineering. Even when an AI gets to the point that it can produce solid code from the English language, it has a ways to go before replacing a software engineer.
One thing that's for sure: tons of business owners will get richer and pay fewer workers. I think we're going to have to face a reckoning as we reach the limits of what capitalism can sustain. But it's also unpredictable because AI opens up new opportunities for everyone else as well.