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I would leaven expectations with the chances of a recalcitrant juror who nullifies.
As we get to the actual trial, we are going to see totalized efforts by right-wing media to inform every American about jury nullification and convey the notion that any juror who nullifies will be a hero of the right and never have to work another day in their life.
Worse, those efforts will be dramatically amplified by users on social media; I’d be shocked if any jurors are able to avoid being exposed to the messaging, as their friends, family, coworkers pick it up.
So is it at all possible the judge could nullify this possibility? Or because juror selection for Trump’s trial hasn’t commenced they’ll be trying to blanket the entirety of the nation in hopes they can get anyone I guess.
I’m not a lawyer, but have read a bunch about nullification, and it’s an interestingly powerful and simple cheat code in the hands of a juror who otherwise behaves normally during voir dire, the trial, and deliberations.
Because it’s so powerful, the justice system pretty much hates citizens knowing about it. Aggressive steps are often taken to remove protesters who try to make jurors aware of nullification, to the point of violating free-speech rights imo.
If a juror goes full John-Grisham-novel-style, and hides their intent to nullify, and they don’t have a findable personal history that clearly conflicts with what they said during voir dire, there isn’t anything the justice system can do to stop that juror from completely ratfucking the government’s case.
And, there would be extraordinary benefits to doing so. A single juror who nullified the government’s case would become a multimillionaire in short order, and they would be a massive hero to 30% of America.
It’s disturbing to think about.