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Collapse Will Look Nothing Like in the Movies
(thehonestsorcerer.substack.com)
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this post was submitted on 29 Jan 2024
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Collapse
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This is the place for discussing the potential collapse of modern civilization and the environment.
Collapse, in this context, refers to the significant loss of an established level or complexity towards a much simpler state. It can occur differently within many areas, orderly or chaotically, and be willing or unwilling. It does not necessarily imply human extinction or a singular, global event. Although, the longer the duration, the more it resembles a ‘decline’ instead of collapse.
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I don't see the inherent argument that technology as a whole is unsustainable. When we're constantly evolving what resources are needed for technology. Yes current tech is unsustainable, but so were steam engines.
Also batteries, lithium is expensive so a lot of companies are trying to come up with cheaper, but also more sustainable alternatives. And they already have with lithium iron phosphate that requires less lithium. And as prices for a substance rise, so will the desire for alternatives and recycling.
We already know we can have sodium batteries but the economics of TWh and PWh storage plus supporting infrastructure, all created and indefinetely sustained mostly by photovoltaics, including photovoltaics itself, including high temperature industrial processes our industry hinges upon are not supported by favorable numbers.
Eventually yes, but I personally think that recycling solar panels and so on could slow collapse much more than the author suggests.
The chief problem with solar photovoltaic or wind turbine power is that its EROEI is uncomfortably close or even is below unity, if you include its supporting fossil input and mineral extraction. Right now the technology is only an extender of fossil fuels and chemical inputs. We also see in the global energy consumption chart that the renewable power is not substituting fossil inputs but only adding to it. Due to the nature of asymmetry of decline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seneca_effect we can expect the decline of fossil inputs to be much faster, putting the deployment rate or even sustained existance of the marginal renewable base into jeopardy.