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Well-timed bets on Polymarket tied to the Iran war draw calls for investigations from lawmakers (www.npr.org)

submitted 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) by MicroWave@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

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Calls are increasing inside Congress for investigations into the prediction market platform Polymarket after the latest instance where groups of anonymous traders made strategic, well-timed bets on a major geopolitical event hours before it occurred.

On Wednesday, The Associated Press reported that at least 50 brand new accounts on Polymarket placed substantial bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire in the hours, even minutes, before Donald Trump announced the ceasefire late Tuesday on social media. These were the sole bets made on Polymarket through these accounts.

In January, an anonymous Polymarket user made a $400,000 profit by betting that Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro would be out of office, hours before Maduro was captured. In the hours before the start of the Iran war, another account made roughly $550,000 in a series of trades effectively betting that the U.S. would strike Iran and that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be removed from office.

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[-] Gork@sopuli.xyz 13 points 2 weeks ago

Isn't this a security risk?

Suppose one of the bets are for timing of boots on the ground.

Iranian intelligence intercepts this and prepares defenses. More Americans die because of their greed.

[-] sexy_peach@feddit.org 4 points 2 weeks ago

It will draw calls from lawmakers

[-] SGGeorwell@lemmy.world 13 points 2 weeks ago

…draw calls of investigations from lawmakers, but beheadings from voters.

[-] minorkeys@lemmy.world 4 points 2 weeks ago

This isn't news. Its just another press release that will go nowhere. How about telling us about the shit that's actually being prosecuted or actioned on in any meaningful manner? Oh..right. there isn't any. Maybe you could report on how peculiar that is and why it is the way it is?

[-] null@lemmy.org 1 points 2 weeks ago

Back in my day the politicians would buy and sell stocks.

this post was submitted on 11 Apr 2026

112 points (99.1% liked)

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