There are signs that IPO is too big for market. 30% retail, and $135/share fixed price are because demand is not present. The illegal private/SPV market is trading below $129, where SPV entity that was not a fraud about to go bankrupt, and confident in the IPO would buy back shares up to close to $135.

This BS by google is desperation to pump their existing stake. Anthropic's headline $1.25B/month deal is also a fraud. Big discounts until after the IPO, and same cancellation rights.

xAI got a made up (no one putting cash in) $250B valuation in its merger. Including Twitter it has barely any revenue, and without having to rent gpu datacenter space, was still losing $10b/year for a not particularly competitive Grok model.

What’s withholding SpaceX from selling more stock with an even shorter time until they can be dumped?

97% of the stock is already issued. 3% goes to new IPO bagholders, shortly later, passive index forced buying from the 3% market. The 97% are the ones with accelerated dump rights, that kick in a percentage shortly after fraudulent accelerated index inclusion date.

The need for more GPUs/datacenters was based on xAI using them for their own models, instead of competing with new datacenters/GPUs in the rental market. GPU rental prices went down to below cost levels for H series after Anthropic deal. It has bounced back this last week, but rates are still in the "very well supplied" range. On demand rates half of Anthropic/Google rental deals. GPU rental rates are the best measure of AI bubble point. Concerted fraud is still possible to provide the illusion of "this is fine". The google deal only starts in September, while Anthropic got some free GPU time when deal was announced.

In a way, pumping more money into AI (through IPO) delays the bubble pop, even if NVidia doesn't sell as many GPUs if their customers add them to rental market. Bubble can pop from 3 directions. Less GPUs/TPUs sold than forecast; datacenter overcapacity ; understanding poor economics/tokenomics of high competition LLM labs.

The sad part is that the more money invested, the greater the funding for the fraud, and longer lasting fraud.