"Donald Trump is returning, artificial intelligence is maturing, the planet is warming, and the global fertility rate is collapsing."

Opinion By #EzraKlein Jan. 12, 2025

from #NewYorkTimes #NYT [gift article - link can be shared. Expires in 30 days.]

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Unfortunately, "Can't agree" is effectively means "unmanaged retreat in response to disaster"

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In English

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Actually getting where we need to be means shutting down existing uses of fossil fuels, not just supplementing them.

This quick cycling between very wet and very dry periods — one example of what scientists have come to call “weather whiplash” — creates prime conditions for wildfires: The rain encourages an abundance of brush and grass, and once all that vegetation dries out, it only takes a spark and a gust of wind to fuel a deadly fire. That’s what happened in Los Angeles County this week, when a fierce windstorm fueled the Palisades and Eaton fires, which as of Wednesday night had killed at least five people, destroyed more than 2,000 buildings, and forced tens of thousands of people to evacuate their homes.

The kind of weather whiplash that fueled the fires is only becoming more common, and not just in the United States. A new analysis in the peer-reviewed academic journal Nature Reviews Earth & Environment has found that rapid shifts between heavy rain and drought (and vice versa) are becoming more intense — and the trend is unfolding faster than climate models have projected. Across the world’s land area, weather whiplash within three-month periods has increased by 31 to 66 percent since the mid-20th century, according to the research. That means that most places around the world find themselves getting both wetter and drier in quick succession, a dangerous combination that can lead to landslides, crop losses, and even the spread of diseases.

cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/52242140

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/24110139

Summary

In 2024, global temperatures rose 1.6°C above preindustrial levels, surpassing the 1.5°C Paris Agreement threshold for the first time.

The rise, driven by fossil fuel emissions and intensified by El Niño, caused extreme weather, record heatwaves, and widespread human suffering.

Experts warn the planet is on track for catastrophic 2.7°C heating by 2100 unless emissions drop 45% by 2030.

Despite renewable energy advances, 2024 saw record carbon emissions.