At this point I would consider a return-to-office mandate at my job to be a massive pay cut. It'd be the equivalent to spending an extra 2-3 hours a day working (because that's what the total commute would be), plus money on vehicle upkeep. If they weren't willing to couple it with a ~40% raise, or with letting me reduce my hours worked by 10-15 per week to compensate for the commute time, I'd quit before the change in policy went into effect, no question.

But people still overwhelmingly prefer at least a few days per week at home, arguing that physical office presence is more trouble than it’s worth and is rarely necessary to complete a task.

If that required data and research to realize, they're simply out of touch or stupid. More likely this is just an excuse for not realizing they couldn't bully people as effectively as they'd hoped.