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Bro, these are not the conservatives you're looking for
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If the AfD votes for Merz, then he will become chancellor. But that doesnt mean that they will form a coalition so its gonna be interesting.
If Merz tries to get himself elected without having secured practically all conservative PMs will call for his head, the Churches are going to let themselves be heard, loudly, there'd be a coup within the CDU/CSU faction. They barely followed him in that stunt last time they're not going to do it when it actually matters.