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No Way
(lemmy.world)
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this post was submitted on 17 Feb 2025
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A lot is made of the 'drop-off', which is easily explained by the fact that Trump is a unique phenomenon. People are shocked that some Trump voters might swing towards a democrat downballot, and I can't imagine the mindset personally, but I acknowledge it exists. Remember, they aren't Republican voters, they are Trump voters. Further, NC has a history of voting for democrat state offices and republican federal offices.
I think if they were going full tampering, you wouldn't see the drop-off, because they'd rig the down-ballot as well.
As to the graphs look funny, well, I think I'll need to see more analysis from more data by a broader set of analysts. I know that statistics will say anything if you torture the numbers enough, so I'm not going to get too invested in visualizations from one source.
Scrutinizing the vote is fine, but feel like this looks more like denial than an educated analysis.
For this case specifically, again, a 'Trump' voter is not a republican voter, the democrat party is way more energized to vote against a would-be Trump ally than before the election. Finally, I don't know about this race, but it's possible that those two in particular have something in the local population making the democrat more popular. For example in NC the republican governor candidate was way specifically a problem, so there's a much easier explanation for why he lost by an anomalous amount.
The challenge with this example is that it suggests that they bothered to rig things against Harris in Montana of all places.
They were rigging it via voter suppression and fighting it in court so they must think it relevant enough to involve themselves in anyway
https://youtu.be/E7aH2_F8v5Q