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64% of Americans say they wouldn’t support Trump: poll
(www.marketwatch.com)
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this post was submitted on 17 Aug 2023
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Lots of people. I have. The linked AP article says they polled 1165 people, which seems small compared to the 332 million, but the math checks out for a 95% confidence level and a 3% margin of error.
How did they do it? Phone? Email?
If you're interested in their methodology, they're named at the bottom of the linked AP article, and they have a page that answers that exact question.
"The poll of 1,165 adults was conducted Aug. 10-14 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points."
So it doesn't say how. I have this idea that they call people. I also have this idea that no one in certain age groups and demographics answers their phone, so are underrepresented.
And if you Google their name, they have a page that gives a summary of how they conduct their polls.
The thing is that they can be 95% sure they are within 3% of what they’d get if they polled everyone. But that’s it. The way people answer polls doesn’t always translate to the way they vote or do anything else.