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The Dumbest Move in Tech Right Now: Laying Off Developers Because of AI
(ppaolo.substack.com)
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this post was submitted on 20 May 2025
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Programming
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That middle graph is absolute fucking bullshit. AI is not fucking ever going to replace 75% of developers or I've been working way too fucking hard for way to little pay these past 30 years. It might let you cut staff 5-10% because it enables folks to accomplish certain things a bit faster.
Christ on a fucking crutch. Ask developers who are currently using AI (not the ones working for AI companies) how much time and effort it actually saves them. They will tell you.
I use it so much. All my Google searches for syntax or snippets? Web searches are unuseable at this point, AI can spit it out faster. But the real savings? Repetitive code. I suck at it, I always make typos and it's draining. I just toss in a table or an api response and tell it what I want and boom
It probably does write 75% of my code by lines, but maybe 5% of the business logic is AI (sometimes I just let it take a crack at a problem, but usually if I have to type it out I might as well code it)
What it's good at drains my concentration, so doing the grunt work for me is a real force multiplier. I don't even use it every day, but it might be a 3x multiplier for me and could improve
But here's the thing - programmers are not replaceable. Not by other humans, not by AI - you learn hyper specific things about what you work on
Get better at it, manually, or you'll suck at it forever. It's a skill like anything else.
I've been doing it for more than a decade without help, I'm not any better at spelling or misclicks
And to be clear, I can do it - I just really, really don't want to. I hate it so much, my eyes glaze over and I have to force myself every second of the way. It's not interesting, there's no puzzles involved... It's basically data entry
So? Show me an industry that's 100% interesting all the time. Artists still have to stretch and gesso their canvases. Rock stars still have to deal with band drama and touring logistics. Directors have to work their budgets and wrangle big egos. Why should software, which is basically using fancy math to tell the dumbest guy in the room exactly what to do, be any different?
There's this awful idea that everything should be fun and nobody should struggle with anything or be forced to do anything menial. We want to be instant experts without going through the boring or hard stuff. And we're willing to offload more and more of this onto proprietary black boxes in exchange for... what?
So I should suffer just to suffer? You listed a whole lot of things that they hire people to do just about as soon as they can so they can. And offloading that let's them do their actual job better
I work with black boxes all the time. When I have a black box, I poke and prod it until I understand how to make it do what I want. And this particular black box was interesting, so I decided to open it up and learn how it works
That's the essence of software development. My job is not typing or data entry, my job is to trick a rock into doing things humans don't want to do
Lol