I largely agree with what you're saying, but he's been in the right place at the right time 3 times, and made good on the potential. Maybe he was just really lucky, maybe he had dozens of things going and those 3 are the ones that panned out, maybe he was a genius that destroyed his talents with hubris and drugs. Certainly, having the financial security to take those chances was a big factor in his success, as much as apparently believing that success was all due to his inborn talent was a big factor on his continuing fall from grace.