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Ukraine Just Blew Up Russia's Main Missile Base In Occupied Crimea
(www.forbes.com)
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this post was submitted on 24 Aug 2023
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Killing Prigozhin definitely pissed off a lot of nationalist Russians
What I don't get: Doesn't this turn the Wagner mercenaries into even more of loose cannons? What's stopping them to just fracture into chaotic splinter groups now?
As soon as these mercenaries stop getting paid, they'll wander off and find another paymaster.
Note that a good chunk of contemporary Wagner soldiers are forcibly recruited criminals. If there's something less reliable than a mercenary, that's a forcibly recruited criminal.
his name is a really easy banner to fly now.. he basically can't do anything wrong anymore.. he died a hero trying to save Russians from the corruption of Putin.. the anger will just grow, especially once that army in Ukraine starts knocking on doors inside Russia..
everyone sees that Putin just did it because he was AFRAID of Prigozhin
Even though I think that’s how it may have played in the West, it seemed like Prigozhin stayed pretty loyal to Putin all throughout, he was really careful to not lay any blame on Putin, more that he was misled. If anything, I wonder if blame will be placed on Shoigu, the Defense minister, that’s who Prigozhin’s beef was with I thought. I’d assume there will be some mob-style reprisals against Shoigu and/or the military leadership rather than against Putin himself. That still may benefit Ukrainians regardless.
Putin won't axe Shoigu he's his perfectly loyal Tuvan pet... not necessarily loyal to Putin (he started under Yeltsin), but to the office of the president: Shoigu is guaranteed to not make a move for office because he has no chance in the first place because racism.
He's pretty much the only person among the Siloviki who is guaranteed to not use their position as head of the army to putsch. Shoigu's best play is to be loyal to whoever happens to be his boss, and that's what he's doing. He may be otherwise incompetent bu he understands politics.
(Side note: Tuva does have a kickass national anthem, with throat singing and everything)
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Thank you for linking that. The anthem absolutely slaps. Now I wish I was Tuvan. Or, at the very least, I wish the Russian Federation would collapse so Tuva can participate in the Olympics under their own flag, and then I will cheer for them so I can hear this anthem.
i don't disagree with one bit of your analysis, i'm just not sure Shoigu will be enough once Ukrainians start driving tanks down Russian highways.. popcorn time in any case, like you say..
I doubt the West will supply arms for a large-scale invasion of Russia. They've already made it clear that the stuff that they are supplying is to be used only in Ukraine, occupied Ukraine, and Crimea, and not anywhere in Russia proper. And Ukraine has been very careful to strike inside Russia only with weapons that do not come from Western governments, and to aim only at military and government targets inside Russia. I doubt a 'real' invasion will happen. Drone worries and border skirmishes, certainly; actual march-on-Moscow invasion, I doubt it.
nothing on this Earth is going to stop that Army.. they will do what they want now.. you just expressed every Russian's delusional dream..
Russians have some waking up in store for them
And on a more realistic note, Ukraine can only continue to fight as long as they have effective weapons, in large numbers - numbers too large for it's treasury to handle.
They have to get the arms from somewhere. Their best bet right now is the West, which has large amounts of various weapons designed to fight the Russians.
If they lost the support of the West, it's possible they could cobble together enough materiel from other sources - countries that would welcome Russian weakness, or welcome Russia's distraction, or see Ukraine as a buffer, or who simply want influence in the area. They could cobble together an arms supply from those sources, but the supply would be erratic, be less designed for interoperability, and would likely run out faster than the Ukrainians' need. I mean, even the US is struggling to supply enough munitions to Ukraine, I'm not sure who can keep up with the needed supply if the US steps out.
that is not an Army "being supported by" anyone.. it exists. it was armed and trained by NATO, that's correct.. it is basically a NATO force now.. deal with it or not, they're going to show you..
there is no force anywhere in Europe that can stop that Army now.. it doesn't matter if you understand that or not.. they don't need help..
You can have the best, most elite fighting force on the face of the planet. They still need weapons, they still need ammo, they still need grenades and rockets and artillery shells, their weapons and tanks and APC's and drones still need servicing and replacements.
In short, Ukraine needs an entire war-oriented production line and logistics/supply system. They have one now, courtesy of the EU, the US, and Ukraine's other allies. A significant percentage of that military aid came from the US. The US is interested in helping Ukraine regain it's full sovereignty including Crimea, and protecting it's European allies. It has absolutely no interest in or appetite for, any real invasion of Russian soil. The US and the EU have repeatedly told Ukraine that Ukraine cannot use any materiel supplied by the US, the EU, or European nations, in any attack on Russia itself.
Ukraine cannot 'win' an invasion of Russia with the weapons it currently has: they don't have enough weapons or anywhere near enough ammo to do it. They may have enough for quick strike forces, but they certainly don't have enough men to actually occupy Russia. Your dream of Ukrainian tanks rolling down Russian highways is just that - a dream.
As for your assertion that "that is not an Army "being supported by" anyone [...] they don't need help": here is a list of military retirement that the US has sent so far - it doesn't even invite what Ukraine has received from other countries or companies. Please explain to me how Ukraine, even with the best army in the world, would win it's war without the weapons and ammo supplied by it's allies. And again, this is just a list of the US military aid, not the EU, not Australia or any of the other countries and companies sending supplies. U.S. security assistance to Ukraine between January 20, 2020, and June 27, 2023:
[Please see my reply to this comment, it's a long list]
you're working really hard.. good luck with that..
i love that you actually used the words, "in short".. just to demonstrate what a troll you are..
10,000 Javelin anti-armor systems
70,000 other anti-armor systems and
munitions
1,700 Stinger anti-aircraft systems
4,000 TOW missiles
35,000 grenade launchers and small arms,
with ammunition
100,000 sets of body armor and helmets
Thousands of night-vision devices,
surveillance systems, thermal imagery
systems, optics, and laser rangefinders
C-4 and other explosives
Explosive-ordnance-disposal equipment
M18A1 Claymore mines
Anti-tank mines
Mine-clearing equipment
Obstacle-emplacement equipment
Medical supplies
Field equipment, cold-weather gear,
generators, and spare parts
Chemical, biological, radiological, and
nuclear protective equipment
18 armored bridging systems
160 155mm Howitzers and ammunition
72 105mm Howitzers and ammunition
47 120mm mortar systems
10 82mm mortar systems
67 81mm mortar systems
58 60mm mortar systems
203mm, 152mm, 130mm, 122mm, 120mm,
and 25mm ammunition
38 HIMAR systems
60,000 122mm Grad rockets
Precision-guided rockets
Rocket launchers and ammunition
154 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles
4 Bradley Fire Support Team vehicles
31 Abrams tanks
45 T-72B tanks (via the Czech Republic)
125 Stryker armored personnel carriers
300 M113 armored personnel carriers
250 M1117 armored security vehicles
200 armored medical-treatment vehicles
500 MRAP vehicles
125mm, 120mm, and 105mm tank
ammunition
2,000 Humvees
354 tactical vehicles
100 light tactical vehicles
68 trucks
124 trailers
10 command post vehicles
30 ammunition support vehicles
6 armored utility trucks
8 logistics support vehicle
89 heavy fuel tankers and 105 fuel trailers
1 Patriot air defense battery and munitions
8 NASAM systems
20 Avenger air defense systems
HAWK air defense systems and munitions
Laser-guided rocket systems
RIM-7 missiles
Antiaircraft guns and ammunition
Equipment to integrate with and sustain
Ukraine’s systems
9 anti-drone gun trucks and ammunition
10 anti-drone laser-guided rocket systems
High-speed anti-radiation missiles
(HARMs)
Precision aerial munitions
6,000 Zuni aircraft rockets (could function
as air defense)
7,000 Hydra-70 aircraft rockets
20 Mi-17 helicopters
ScanEagle drones
Puma drones
JUMP drones
CyberLux K8 drones
Switchblade drones
Phoenix Ghost drones
ALTIUS-600 drones (can also be used for
surveillance)
Munitions
2 Harpoon coastal defense systems
62 coastal and riverine patrol boats
Unmanned coastal defense vessels
Port and harbor security equipment
4 satellite communications antennas
2 radars for unmanned aerial systems
21 air surveillance radars
70 counter-artillery and counter-
mortar radars
20 multi-mission radars
Tactical secure communications systems
Counter air defense capability
Counter–unmanned aerial systems
Electronic jamming equipment
SATCOM terminals and services
Commercial satellite imagery services
"And we'll hate him... cause he's a Dark Knight."
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Nothing, and a few probably will. But a few small groups are much more easily handled. I wouldn't be surprised if smashing the group was the main motivation behind the plane crash.
What about just one guy with a grudge and a shoulder-fired missile launcher (anti-aircraft or anti-tank, depending on how you prefer to travel)? I'm sure Putin himself has countermeasures but he may still have problems unless his men can track down every Wagnerite who may have taken home a souvenir from Ukraine.
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You missed Afghanistan’s war huh?
That's a really good question. Lots of implications. Will they attack the Kremlin? Will they continue stabilizing dictatorships in Africa? Will the Kremlin get control of them and use them in Ukraine? Revenge assassinations?
Most of those "nationalists" are fucking statetists.