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Human-level AI is not inevitable. We have the power to change course
(www.theguardian.com)
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this post was submitted on 21 Jul 2025
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How do you know we’re not remotely close to AGI? Do you have any expertise on the issue? And expertise is not “I can download Python libraries and use them” it is “I can explain the mathematics behind what is going on, and understand the technical and theoretical challenges”.
I hold a PhD in probabilistic machine learning and advise businesses on how to use AI effectively for a living so yes.
IMHO, there is simply nothing indicating that it's close. Sure LLMs can do some incredibly clever sounding word-extrapolation, but the current "reasoning models" still don't actually reason. They are just LLMs with some extra steps.
There is lots of information out there on the topic so I'm not going to write a long justification here. Gary Marcus has some good points if you want to learn more about what the skeptics say.
So, how would you define AGI, and what sorts of tasks require reasoning? I would have thought earning the gold medal on the IMO would have been a reasoning task, but I’m happy to learn why I’m wrong.
I definitely think that's remarkable. But I don't think scoring high on an external measure like a test is enough to prove the ability to reason. For reasoning, the process matters, IMO.
Reasoning models work by Chain-of-Thought which has been shown to provide some false reassurances about their process https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.04388 .
Maybe passing some math test is enough evidence for you but I think it matters what's inside the box. For me it's only proved that tests are a poor measure of the ability to reason.
I’m sorry, but this reads to me like “I am certain I am right, so evidence that implies I’m wrong must be wrong.” And while sometimes that really is the right approach to take, more often than not you really should update the confidence in your hypothesis rather than discarding contradictory data.
But, there must be SOMETHING which is a good measure of the ability to reason, yes? If reasoning is an actual thing that actually exists, then it must be detectable, and there must be a way to detect it. What benchmark do you purpose?
You don’t have to seriously answer, but I hope you see where I’m coming from. I assume you’ve read Searle, and I cannot express to you the contempt in which I hold him. I think, if we are to be scientists and not philosophers (and good philosophers should be scientists too) we have to look to the external world to test our theories.
For me, what goes on inside does matter, but what goes on inside everyone everywhere is just math, and I haven’t formed an opinion about what math is really most efficient at instantiating reasoning, or thinking, or whatever you want to talk about.
To be honest, the other day I was convinced it was actually derivatives and integrals, and, because of this, that analog computers would make much better AIs than digital computers. (But Hava Siegelmann’s book is expensive, and, while I had briefly lifted my book buying moratorium, I think I have to impose it again).
Hell, maybe Penrose is right and we need quantum effects (I really really really doubt it, but, to the extent that it is possible for me, I try to keep an open mind).
🤷♂️