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Trump drops 6 points in post-debate GOP poll
(thehill.com)
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this post was submitted on 28 Aug 2023
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The bigger issue for Republicans isn't really Trump, but Trumpism. Let's say that Trump dropped out tomorrow and didn't run as a third party candidate. Apart from pigs flying and Satan having a snowball fight, the Republicans would need to pick a new frontrunner.
The person who would likely have the best chance of winning the general election would be Nikki Haley. This isn't to say that I like her or agree with her positions (I definitely don't). I just think that she would be the Republican candidate that would have the best shot in the 2024 general election.
Nikki isn't going to survive the primary, though. The Republican primaries are all about how far right you can go. They don't cheer moderate conservative views, they cheer far right views. Basically, they want a candidate who will go right up to the "this country should only be run by straight, white, Christian men" and then dip their toe over that line. And this is just getting bolder so soon they'll only vote for someone who is willing to erase the line and arrest anyone who says that there should be a line.
What happens when a "Only Straight White Christian Men" candidate meets the general electorate, though? They get trounced - especially if they're up against a moderate Democrat. (I lean progressive, but I'm enough of a realist to know that moderate Democrats are the best bet to win in some areas.)
So even if Trump were out of the picture, the vicious cycle of "we need someone Republicans even further to the right" will make them less and less electable. Of course, Republicans won't give up power willingly so they'll rely more and more on gerrymandering, disenfranchisement via voter suppression, and other dirty tactics to keep their minority rule.