Bullshit. They planned to conquer Kiev in 3 days. Here we are almost 4 years later. It’s surprising how weak they are.

In the first 2 years, we waited for use of armoured vehicles to hit their monthly rate of production. This has largely happened, the reserves of armour that USSR built up have been spent by Russia. Vehicles that still stand in parking lots require deep renovation (slow and costly). So this prediction has largely come true.

In the first 3 years, we waited for Russia's sovereign wealth fund to empty, ending Putin's ability to shelter the economy against the cost of war. This now seems to have largely happened, as the central bank is selling reserves of gold. It follows that more appropriate things to sell are scarce.

We also waited for Russia's inventory of civilian planes and railway locomotives + carriages to degrade due to lack of spare parts. This has not fully come true. Planes fly less, railways transport less, but they smuggle spare parts from third countries.

We have waited for Russia's oil and gas revenues to fall, and they have fallen, considerably. At current levels, under Ukrainian "sanctions by drone", Russia has to cut other budget lines to finance the war - and it has cut or frozen other budget lines (social security, health care, education, almost everything - war makes up approximately 40% of the government budget).

We have waited for the wages of soldiers to drop, and for soldiers to understand that inflation will make the money they got worthless. This has only partly happened - several regions have announced that they cannot pay large one-time compensations to people going to war.

We have waited for a crisis in Russia's economy, and in some sectors there already is a crisis. Purchases of new cars, real estate and agricultural equipment have fallen sharply. Many companies have reduced work weeks (reduced pay), owe employees wages, or cannot service their debts.

If Putin overplays his hand and economy does collapse, this does not automatically mean his replacement. He's a dictator and has a KGB background, he knows to expect rebellions and can supress them. He knows to expect a coup and may prevent one.

Eventually he'll be replaced. We can't influence or predict the personal characteristics of his successor, but whoever replaces him will very surely want to end the war, and doesn't have to save face while doing that.

However, Levada's polls - arguably the only polls which could indicate the real state of Russian society - do not indicate the ground shifting yet. They indicate that people are universally tired of the war, but not yet willing to end it by returning land to Ukraine.

For example, the "country is going in the right direction" indicator currently stands at 65%. Surfing on waves of war propaganda, it topped at 75% last year (rising from a low of 48% before the war - explains why Putin needed the war - to secure his own power), but it's in a downward trend.

So, sadly, propaganda is still working, but it's not working as well as it used to. In the "battle of the fridge and TV" (for people's opinion) sadly the TV still prevails.

Wow what a great person

Russia still kicking Ukraine's ass

What, in your mind, is the attrition/casualty rate per kilometer of advancement by the Russian army?

I don't think you're getting information from an impartial news source.

I think you’re being abrasive about it, but are making a decent point.

Yes, lots of clickbait exaggerated Russia's fragility. Some actual analysts underestimated certain aspects of Russia.

And Russia won many geopolitical dice rolls:

• Trump won.
• Europe is still bickering internally.
• India bought their oil for a long time.
• China stayed tolerant.
• Wagner coup failed, but only barely.

And so on.

There are some nasty, ambitious figures in Russian politics apparently “reigned in” by Putin now. If he's deposed… what happens? Do we get a Russia fractured by warlords armed with Soviet warheads? I’d much rather see it vassalized by China or something.

And yeah, at the end of the day this is the physically largest country on Earth, backed by the most populous, invading a tiny one. Endless war is utterly catastrophic for the Russian people, but (if the US basically withdraws from NATO and Europe keeps being Europe), they are on an extremely slow track to grind down Ukraine and claim the ashes :(

Anyway, you should read ISW’s reports on the war:

https://www.understandingwar.org/

They have a quite grounded take. And from the even before the war started (when forces massed on the border), they’ve been warning that Russia has the political power to grind on. They tried to warn policymakers about the clickbait.