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If this is true, then RIP
(lemmy.world)
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this post was submitted on 22 Feb 2026
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i will honestly be surprised if it happens this far out from the midterms. i was thinking shit hits the fan maybe a month or two at most before voting day, so fascists can pep rally their braindead supporters into a "we are victorious, therefore the best party" bullshit narrative
i could be wrong. it doesn't matter. trump was always going to invade iran, regardless of how fucking dumb that always was
Truthfully I think a new war now would destroy them. If they let midterms happen
Idk, it will spike gas prices presumably, one thinks Iran would shut down the straits of hormuz this time, I can't believe they didn't last time though so what do I know. But it will supercharge inflation, and gas prices, 25% of oil moves through there.
Plus once a ship gets blown up, insurance pulls their coverage, and those tankers are worth like a hundred million or more, they won't risk them in a war zone without insurance.
One would think between mines, and missiles they could have dug in and pull out and shoot off then disappear, that they could shut down the straits, and that maybe last time they were holding back to wait it out and not escalating. Which was a mistake as it guarenteed Israel would want to get some more cost free hits in.
But close to the election the hyper inflation could hurt, now they've plenty of time to calm it down, assuming they can keep Israel on a leash enough to keep the gulf ships going through after.
You think Iran could control the Strait of Hormuz against two US carrier strike groups?
The US navy can't secure the Bab-el-Mandeb strait against less well equipped yemani rebels