Kamala lost on Palestine.

I wholeheartedly disagree with this. You grossly overestimate how much people care about Palestine. The vast, vast majority don't care, it's very much down on the list of priorities for most people, including the ones who vote Democrat. Kamala lost for 3 reasons:

1. Biden lied about being a one term president, the Democrats refused to have primaries, and Biden refused to step down until the very last minute, which didn't give her campaign enough time to make waves
2. She was explicitly saying that she was going to be Biden 2.0 on the economy, and that didn't go well with people. Even though it wasn't Biden's fault that Russia invaded Ukraine or Covid happened, people still blamed him for the economic problems that these events caused.
3. She's a black woman. It's really I sad, but I personally know about a dozen people who unironically voted for Trump solely because Kamala was both black and a woman. It's safe to say these are not the brightest people, but they unfortunately make up a very large chunk of the voter population in this country

I think you're probably right that Trump might start a war because the midterms are around the corner, but at the same time, I genuinely think he's too dumb to think that strategically. I think it's much more likely that he wants something to distract the population from the Epstein files.