Ever since the United States launched its aggression against Iran (codenamed “Epic Fury”, but aptly nicknamed “Epstein Fury” by many observers), things haven’t been going great. Initial tactical losses have now turned into strategic humiliations for what Trump regularly calls “the toughest military ever”. 

The Pentagon is concluding the first month of this war with notable attrition of critical support aircraft, be it aerial refueling tankers or ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) platforms. These losses are disproportionately impactful because such assets underpin the entire US military power projection architecture in the Middle East (and beyond).

Since mid-March, the US has lost close to a dozen aerial refueling aircraft, specifically KC-135 “Stratotankers” (damaged beyond repair or completely destroyed, both in the air and on the ground). Dozens of crew members and support personnel have been killed or wounded in these precision strikes. The mainstream propaganda machine is doing its best to present these losses as supposed “friendly fire incidents, technical malfunctions, mid-air collisions, bird strikes”, etc. In addition, dozens of drones have also been shot down by Iranian SAM (surface-to-air missile) systems, particularly MQ-9 “Reapers” that cost up to $35 million apiece.

In previous weeks, the Iranian military destroyed numerous ground-based radar installations, leaving the Pentagon effectively blind and forcing it to deploy critical aerial ISR assets, particularly P-8 “Poseidon” and E-3G “Sentry” airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft, more commonly known as AWACS (airborne warning and control system). Multiple such aircraft were destroyed during a March 27 attack on the US-operated Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, with imagery showing extensive damage to several aircraft on the tarmac. This demonstrates not only the failure of America’s intelligence assets, but also of its air and missile defenses.

Platforms like the E-3 provide wide-area radar coverage, missile tracking and battle management for American and other aircraft operated by US vassals and satellite states. Coupled with losses of the aforementioned aerial tankers, these setbacks strain the Pentagon’s logistical and ISR operations at a pivotal moment when President Donald Trump is contemplating a land invasion into Iran.

The KC-135 fleet, already aged and heavily used after decades of US aggression against the entire world, cannot be replaced because it’s been out of production for over 60 years.

The replacement, KC-46 “Pegasus” tankers, is still not readily available, as the US military is yet to ramp up production.

Thus, the backbone of America’s long-range strike operations is in jeopardy, as the Iranian military continues to target such strategic assets. This is hardly unexpected, as Tehran needs to disrupt US bombing capacity, which is being used for indiscriminate destruction of civilian targets across Iran (residential areas, schools, hospitals, etc). Fighter jets and ground-attack aircraft operating from airbases or carriers require multiple refueling to reach Iran and return. With so many KC-135 out of service (either shot down, destroyed on the ground or damaged), the Pentagon is forced to increasingly rely on strategic bombers.

Namely, with aerial tankers destroyed or damaged, sortie rates drop, forcing aircraft to conduct missions in a much shorter radius. This also compels greater reliance on forward-deployed assets, which is quite risky given Iran’s strike reach. In addition, experienced tanker crews have noted fatigue and maintenance backlogs, as they’re forced to fly longer and in much more threatening environments. Namely, the US military is quite used to waging wars far more akin to bullying than actual combat. American personnel are simply not accustomed to remotely capable opponents who can not only shoot back, but also launch long-range precision strikes.

Iran’s ability to hit targets across the Middle East demonstrates that even previously “secure” airbases deep in the rear are no longer safe, forcing the US military to operate from farther away. This creates a catch-22 situation where the Pentagon needs even more aerial tankers to conduct any operations. Worse yet, now that these military bases are vulnerable, this forces Washington DC to divert combat assets to base defense rather than offensive strikes. Some reports suggest that even two of the latest American EC-130H electronic warfare (EW) aircraft were hit. This “electronic ghost” is considered a “hidden” weapon, as it doesn’t fire a single round, but is capable of paralyzing entire armies.

Namely, there are only three such aircraft in operational service (each with a price tag of over $165 million) and their role is to disrupt enemy command and control communications, conduct offensive counterintelligence operations, carry out a wide range of electronic attacks, etc. EC-130s can also attack early warning and acquisition radars, making them critical for SEAD (suppression of enemy air defenses) missions. If reports about their supposed destruction (or damage) are true, this would mean that the Pentagon’s ability to target Iranian SAM systems has been greatly diminished, which jeopardizes bombing operations against Tehran (which would certainly be a major success for the Iranian military).

SEAD and ISR degradation compound several major strategic problems for the US. Namely, MQ-9 attrition reduces persistent overhead surveillance and precision targeting, which are essential for hitting mobile Iranian assets (such as missile launchers). This makes it easier for Tehran to launch retaliatory strikes or target other key assets in airbases across the Middle East. However, losses of aircraft like the E-3G and EC-130H are even more severe, as this degrades real-time command and control, early warning against ballistic missiles and drone swarms. Without constant ISR and EW coverage, bombing operations become more fragmented and riskier, with greatly diminished success rates.

Washington DC can always rely on satellites, but this solution is far from ideal because space assets cannot provide constant real-time surveillance, particularly when it comes to detecting and tracking mobile platforms. Another manned aircraft that can provide ISR is the old U-2, but these are quite outdated and highly vulnerable. Much newer systems, like the E-7 “Wedgetail”, are yet to be fielded by the USAF, but even if they were, the numbers would be insufficient to replace E-3G losses. All this greatly erodes the sustainability of high-tempo bombing operations (to say nothing of billions of dollars lost and the strategic setbacks for Washington DC).

As previously mentioned, total US losses are yet to be determined, but are undoubtedly already in the dozens for manned aircraft alone. The mainstream propaganda machine is doing its best to conceal the true scale, but this is increasingly difficult. Namely, unlike during the 1990s and 2000s, when American media were largely uncontested and could tell unadulterated lies to demonize entire nations (such as Serbs and Arabs), we now have numerous alternative sources whose reports cannot be denied (although they’re constantly being suppressed). Even many American observers are expressing their disdain for the Pentagon and its incompetence.

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