Megathread for the US war on Iran | Week 21 of 2026
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this post was submitted on 18 May 2026
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What do you think guys? After yet another week of thruth social posts and back-to-back statements from both parties - will this be the week where we see either an escalation or an agreement? Now that the US regime is back from China, are they more inclined to pursue military action or will this just continue to fissle out without much progress?
It is obvious that both sides are quite far from eachother (mostly stemming from the US continuing to push for maximalist concessions), still the most immediate suffering seems to be felt by the people in Lebanon, Palestine and Iran.
We're definitely gonna see more violence, unfortunately.
JPMC is pretty sure that the US needs a “solution” that “reopens” Hormuz by early June. That cuts both ways, more pressure to find a military solution and greater risk of any miscalculation or failure. The safest play is to keep the blockade on the blockade going and say that Iran is being crippled.
It looks like there's very little room for a negotiated solution but a long slow drawdown that ends somewhere both sides can accept without ever declaring an agreement doesn’t seem insane to me. It’s face saving for the US and Iran collecting tolls and controlling Hormuz is pretty good for them.
Or Iran could reach a breakthrough advancement in its nuclear program that makes this war kinda pointless.