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this post was submitted on 19 Jun 2023
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World News
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It's always 20-30 years in the future.
In 2000, it was 2030.
Or to put it differently: "Let the next generation deal with it."
Are countries on track to meet their climate pledges?
The problem here is that many countries are just outsourcing their CO² output. If you move the factory to Asia, the CO² output doesn't show up in your country, but instead in Asia.
Another issue with the charts by the BBC is that they don't show per-capita data but instead the total amount, and the "needed for 1.5°" curve is also not adjusted per-capita but instead adjusted based on what the country is doing so far. So for example, it allows for the USA to have per-capita yearly CO² emissions of ~10t by 2030, while Kenya only gets 0.95t per capita.
Actually, they say Kenya is wildly not on track to reach the 1.5° goal, while even the incredible increase that they are projecting based on the policies curve would only put them up to 2.4t CO² per capita, compared to the 10t CO² per capita that they put as the "USA would be awesome if they managed to reduce to that level".