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Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | Teaser
(youtu.be)
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It's going to be fighting upstream for sure, audiences appear to be losing interest in yet-another-superhero movie. Jason Momoa has alot of star draw, so I'm not sure if that will even out. There actually hasn't been much of a media campaign at all for this release, so thats not a great sign, it means the studio isn't confident and is hedging its bets by not wasting money on media.
The casting controversy probably will hurt it too, but maybe enough people will be interested in it that it works as advertising and drawing in more people.
Overall I'd say the expectations are cautious right now