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this post was submitted on 11 Sep 2023
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The next 10 or 20 years? I just read an article that hit it already and will likely do it consistently over the next several years. The next 10-20 will likely few closer to a 3.6°F (2°C) rise.
Year-to-year surface temperatures vary significantly. Look at a graph like this:
and it's clear that we could easily have a string of years below this year's temperature
We could but the current El Niño is supposed to be pretty significant. We also have significantly less sulfur oxide being spewed by international shipping which has a large cooling effect on the oceans. It is good that we cut down on that pollution and there are things we can replace it with that will have similar effects and are less damaging but there is currently nothing planned that would essentially replace that coming effect.
While you are correct that there is a good amount of variability in the temperature, I think it is just as likely that it will be variability the other way.
I think I know the one you're talking about, and the headline is somewhat misleading. This comes with the disclaimer that I don't want to downplay the severity of any of this, but it's important to have the right context.
What's happened is that we've had two months in a row with extreme temperatures. Those alone peak above +1.5C. It had been this high before, back in 2016. However, we're not going to have an average of +1.5C of extra warming this year, or in the next few years.
It's still bad, just not that bad.