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this post was submitted on 26 Sep 2023
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Programming
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Oh, I think it will cause a reduction in jobs - at least compared to if it had not existed. So did interpreted languages, shell scripting, web frameworks, code-generation templates, the dot-com bust, and the 2008 recession.
Some folks are convinced that reduction is happening this year. I've written my share of LLMs and ML code, and I assure you it will not be next year.
The hallucination problem is being dramatically downplayed by the sales people, but reality tends to sort that stuff out.
Over the longer term, there's a feeling among developers that this job is going to both stop sucking so badly, and stop paying so well. I also believe that is coming. But not this year or next.
If anything, we look forward to quite a bit of additional pain and money to clean up after all the all-in-on-day-one AI mistakes being made right now.
After that mess is sorted, a few of us should be able to retire, and a bunch of the rest can switch to part time.
Edit: A key thing folks don't recognize about the in-progress AI revolution is that programming isn't a slow job, before the AI.
Programming is a minefield of preventable mistakes, botched deployments, subtle mistakes, outright security nightmare mistakes, and misunderstood user requests.
The programmer shortage is not because we're all tired of typing so many lines of code, or even of copy/pasting from Stack Overflow, and we just need more of us to do all that lovely typing and pasting.
The programmer shortage is because this job is a minefield of stressful surprises, and we have a high attrition rate.
AI can and will help. But anyone betting on AI as a full replacement in the short run is woefully ignorant of the steep challenges faced by the entire field of programming.
I never meant to imply, like the attached article, that this is all happening soon. It doesn't have to happen soon to upend decades long careers.
I'm sure AI will help at first. That's the point with something like this. Get people using it so you can continue to improve it to the point where you don't need the people.
Same thing happened with the loggers. Oh this equipment can't replace a person. It's just here to make a hard job easier. No. No. No it's not the equipment taking your job away. It's that damn spotted owl taking your job.
That kind of makes me wonder in the decades ahead what will be the spotted owl when programmers start getting replaced.