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this post was submitted on 03 Oct 2023
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Politics
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McCarthy needed Dem votes to maintain a hold on the speakership, but the concessions he would have needed to make in order to get them would have meant making himself incredibly vulnerable to a career-ending primary challenge. The political incentives don't line up.
He dug that grave when he lied to the Democrats.
After his shitshow of a speakership does he have any realistic chance of reelection? He looks pathetic and weak and will probably be defeated by a conspiracy blogger.
He's already decided that he's out of the speakership entirely, meaning that getting the speakership will likely turn into another John Boehner-style Cold War where the most right side of the party gets exactly what they want and the more "moderate" side will get flushed again unless the "moderates" turn it into an actual civil war. Best case scenerio is that Dems get 5 votes and just make one of their own the speaker for the rest of the session.
I meant his chances of reelection to the House, not as speaker of it.