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this post was submitted on 05 Oct 2023
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It may go better than you think.
There are reports already out that the judge in this case undervalued at least some of Trump's properties when making his fraud ruling. Now if Trump can goad him into making any kind of personal comments that even give the appearance that the judge is biased, he can use all of that on appeal in hopes of getting the whole thing thrown out.
"This judge made numerous factual errors in his original ruling of fraud, grossly undervaluing the Trump brand and the value of our properties. And during the trial, he said X, Y, and Z in response to me exercising my First Amendment rights under the Constitution. He would not allow us to file for a jury trial even though amended filings are commonplace in our court system. Therefore, we ask the appeals court to throw the entire case out entirely."
Adjust for legalese as necessary, but that's pretty much what Trump is going to go for. And keep in mind that, contrary to the beliefs of some, Trump's record in these cases isn't nearly as bad as some claim. Will it work? At worst, I'd say the chances are nonzero. But those chances significantly increase if this judge actually does anything that an appeals court rules as even slightly improper. And that's what Trump is trying to goad this judge into.
Our system of justice is not really designed to balance the First Amendment rights of someone who is expressing an opinion or otherwise just venting frustration when that same person's word can literally cause nationwide violence. How do you handle someone like Trump when attempting to silence, gag, or jail him could spark nationwide violence at any time and put everyone involved with the case and their families at risk, but not attempting to do so only emboldens him and causes him to make even more violent threats?
The judge is not in real estate, he's a judge. He didn't dream up figures to fry Trump. James would have gotten them from sources who are real estate experts, and at this level the sources must have been deemed independent and unbiased by the judge to use them.
As long as the case took to build, and as it all rests on these figures, the people who matter must have full confidence in them under scrutiny.
Any suggestion that the figures are flawed likely comes from Team Trump, and would be in line with their long list of dubious claims both in and out of court.
Actually, it's coming from articles such as this.
Even if the judge had a good-faith reason to believe the values that he was presented with, those values being wrong could easily be enough to have the case thrown out regardless of who's fault the error was. (This assumes that the properties were undervalued in the first place, of course).
If the arguments made in that article are accurate, it becomes a question of whether an appeals court believes that the judge jumped the gun in issuing his ruling of fraud instead of giving Trump's legal team an opportunity to make their case that the properties were undervalued. (IMO, this should have been done anyway, as there's no way he can make this case without admitting to even more serious tax fraud charges, as he was simultaneously under-valuing the properties himself for tax evasion purposes.)
If these property valuations really are wrong, there's a case for an appeal here. Now add Trump's usual spin to it and the fact that eventually the case is going to end up in front of a Trump-friendly panel of judges (even if he has to appeal all the way to the SC to get there), and you end up with a case that may be messy and incoherent because it's Trump after all, but still a case who's chances of being successful are still uncomfortably above zero.
If those arguments have merit then they'll have to sort out the details of how much Trump overvalued his properties. As I understand it that is the purpose of the trial at this point.
The Florida-based real estate pros referenced in the article didn't throw out any estimated values of Mar a Lago, and they didn't suggest it hadn't been overvalued by Trump.
The lawyer in NYC quoted seems to have little concern over the whole thing.
| Cintron, the Harrington Ocko & Monk partner, doesn’t think the Mar-a-Lago valuation controversy moves the needle on the question of whether Trump committed fraud.
| “There is enough of a pattern of this practice that he’s engaged with in respect to his properties to support Judge Engoron’s conclusions that there was an intent to defraud,” Cintron said.
EDIT: Apologies for formatting, I haven't figured out quotes in Lemmy
This I agree with. In the end, what Trump's team is arguing is that "hey, I only committed a little fraud, not the amount they're accusing me of!", as if that's all that much better.
But it does open the door enough for Trump's team to be able to use it as a basis for appeal, especially if those incorrect estimates are tied in any way to the verdict or damages he's going to have to pay. And unfortunately, Trump has an amazing talent of being able to kick the door in if you leave it open enough for him to even squeeze in a toe.
Going by the events of recent history, I'm inclined to agree that they'll weasel out of appropriate consequences by arguing over anything except the main points.
It sure would be nice if the NY court proves us both wrong. I believe that if just one of the cases follows through holding his feet to the fire (including on appeal), the other courts will be much more inclined to follow suit.