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It’s official: The era of China’s global dominance is over
(www.businessinsider.com)
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this post was submitted on 16 Oct 2023
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This is the best summary I could come up with:
For the past three decades, China has been on the upswing of a supercycle that saw an almost uninterrupted expansion of the country's capacity to manufacture, appetite to consume, and ability to project power across the world economy.
Chu — who has been called the "rock star" of Chinese debt analysis — told me that this weakness is not just a result of a cyclical downturn; it's a part of a more permanent shifting of supply chains caused by trade tensions with Europe and the US.
Allowing a property-market correction, bailing out local governments, creating a new funding mechanism for them, developing a social safety net for the people through all this instability — all of it costs money.
When Japan started struggling in 1991 with a similar dynamic — aging population, sky-high debt, and slowing growth — its GDP per capita was more than triple that amount, at $41,266 in today's dollars.
"What's really a shame is that China never seized the opportunity on the way up to build a comprehensive social safety net where people feel they don't have to save a lot of money for a rainy day — for healthcare, education, what have you," Chu told me.
Earlier this month, the House select committee on China competition held a hearing in New York City, calling on witnesses to describe what risk looks like with a Chinese Communist Party that's less committed to the free flow of capital and more concerned with flexing its muscles within its region.
The original article contains 2,755 words, the summary contains 251 words. Saved 91%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!