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After ChatGPT disruption, Stack Overflow lays off 28 percent of staff
(arstechnica.com)
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this post was submitted on 17 Oct 2023
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Unemployment is low, wages are finally outstripping inflation, inflation is falling and there is huge investment in factories and infrastructure.
It doesn't appear that a recession is on it's way but rather the free money that was flowing into the IT sector is causing all these companies to become profitable fast.
Thus the lay-offs.
It's not always as simple as that, though.
https://fortune.com/2023/10/01/recession-still-likely-and-coming-soon-6-reasons-why/
And one that agrees with you:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/with-gallic-shrug-fed-bids-adieu-recession-that-wasnt-2023-08-16/
The truth of the matter? No one really knows. Large economies are very difficult to forecast reliably and consistently. I hope you're right and it's all continual growth for the next couple of years, at the very least. But, like the first article I linked mentions, fed hikes can have a 18-24 month lag time to see real world impacts on various industries and we're soon approaching the first of that timeframe.