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this post was submitted on 19 Oct 2023
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What we know
So if we are just to do some basic considerations. Occam's Razor.
If Israel did not hit the hospital then
a) out of all the rockets to misfire, of which we haven't heard of any significant misfires up until now, it had to be the rare and few powerful ones that Palestinians have. This is a low probability event. Much more likely that in a barrage of rockets, the small ones misfire because the overwhelmingly majority is small
b) out of all the places to land, it lands precisely on top of a hospital in precisely a way that kills as many people as possible. Another low probability event. Realistically, the vast majority of failed rockets would land in areas that are not strategically relevant or are not a humanitarian area.
c) this rocket just happens to land on the same exact hospital that Israel had attacked multiple times previously and had demanded evacuation of. another low probability event.
d) israel has been known on multiple occasions to outright lie about something when it looks like they are committing war crimes. during the killing of the journalist, Shireen Abu Akleh the playbook went like this..
Independent investigation show that the killing was likely deliberate and nobody was shooting at the Israelis at the time of her death. She was shot in cold blood, in what some people believe is a targeted killing. But at this point, both the US and Israel refuse any criminal investigation.
This playbook, coincidentally, looks very similar to the US's response to their airstrike on a hospital in Afghanistan. Deny, blame the Afghanis, eventually concede it was them and claim it was an accident. No criminal investigations.
Turns out countries that openly preach about their "humanitarian values" have a lot of incentive to lie when events like this get mass media coverage. So, is this a low probability event or a high probability? I don't know.
e) the digital spokesman for the israelis openly admitted to the bombing and then quickly deleted the tweet. is it because he was mistaken or because he was told to delete the tweet? high probability or low probability? I don't know.
Let's do a little formula. LPE = low probability event, UPE = unknown probability event
LPE x LPE x LPE x UPE x UPE
Let's try some different values to get a broad estimate.
LPE = 20% UPE = 50% 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.002 = 0.2%
LPE = 50% UPE = 80% 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.08 = 8%
LPE = 80% UPE = 90% 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.9 * 0.9 = .41 = 41%
So depending on how likely you believe the above events, you can estimate a different probability. For example, if you think that the chances of the Palestinians having their rocket misfire over virtually the worst possible spot it could have is 80%, you may reach a different conclusion than if you believe the chances are actually let's say 20%
The point of the exercise is to show that there's a lot of reason to believe Israel did it and there's a lot of reason to believe Israel is lying (including making up videos, like they've done in the past), and there's a lot of reason to believe the US is blindly backing up their lies (like they've done in the past)
Please don't mistake this for some sort of serious scientific attempt at proving the Israelis wrong. It's just a thought exercise to illustrate the point that for this to have been the Palestinians, there would have had to be a lot of little coincidences. Which CAN happen. Unlikely events happen all the time. But in situations like this, I think we have to be realistic and look at the simplest answer. I personally think it's very likely Israel did it. I don't know, and I don't think we'll ever know.
But maybe in some time we'll have an independent investigation and Israel will ultimately own up to it. Only time will tell.
This is a LOT of mental gymnastics (and made up bullshit) when there is tons of actual, real-world evidence that a terrorist's misfired rocket damaged the hospital, and that the terrorists lied about the casualty numbers.
This is Q-cult level nonsense just to avoid reality man
Dude, they did MATHS, that's science™.
I was fully ready to believe Israel was responsible for it because it fits their MO, but the evidence is compelling that it was indeed a misfired rocket. The small crater we’ve seen in photos combined with the large fireball on video is consistent with a small warhead and a hefty charge of leftover propellant. Yes, the probability of such an accident occurring is low, but not zero.
I'm actually surprised these sorts of accidents don't happen more often, considering the primitive rocket technology they're using.
I'm amazed they're able to build functioning rockets at all. Once you get beyond the small ones that are basically extra-dangerous fireworks, it's literally rocket science.
(small) rocket science is much less hard now that it’s pretty well documented on the internet afaik
A small crater doesn't mean Israel didn't bomb it. There are ways to blow up bombs that doesn't leave much of a crater. For example, check out this video I just uploaded on imgur. It's a proximity blast - once it gets to a certain elevation above the ground it blows up. This does damage but doesn't leave a crater.
Also, I uploaded another video which was a sound comparison between the typical Hamas rocket as compared to bombs equipped with the US's JDAM system. JDAM is just a way to turn "dumb bombs" into "smart bombs". read more here. Listen to the sound difference here.
This doesn't prove anything conclusively, but there is a lot of discussion on the OSINT communities on twitter going on right now and yesterday about this attack on the hospital. There are a lot of smart people arguing for both sides, and I'm not smart nor an expert. In lieu of an independent investigation, I'm going to default to probably Israel just based on my above comment.
This type of blast would murder the building. Three of your dots at least are not things we know or we know the opposite.
there are different types of bombs you can use with JDAM. It doesn't have to be a massive 2,000lb bomb like the MK84 (of which Israel has a large stockpile of)
the MK82 for example is also compatible which is 500 lbs or the 1,000lb variant MK83. here's a vid of MK82.
that could plausibly do damage similar to what we saw, especially if we vary the elevation at which it blows up. and all of them would sound similar to each other to someone on the ground
main point is that "there's a small crater" isn't definitive evidence for "israel didn't bomb"
Sure evidence is never going to be for certain but I will say that again because your bullet points have things that are from straight out lies (the fake facebook posting) Any information from you is suspect. I mean we could go all the way to maybe the pilot dropped a grenade.
which ones are straight up lies? enlighten me
i tried very deliberately to only make statements in the bullet points that i could back up.
we can disagree about my logic but something either happened or it didn't.
These definately
Hananya Naftali is the name of the spokesman. here's a link to his twitter
this was the tweet that made immediately after the hospital event go ahead and look it up, it was widely reported on
he then posted this after deleting the original
now go search for a reuters article about the bombing that was live before he posted his original tweet. i couldn't find one, personally. although to be fair, i didn't look very hard
you can read more about palestinian rocket arsenal. it's not secret classified information
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_rocket_arsenal
their most common rocket is the Qassam, this is the one they produce themselves
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qassam_rocket
the biggest payload is 20kg
we're talking about a bomb in the 250-500lb range. it just isn't enough.
they do have stronger rockets, but they are fewer because they cannot produce them entirely on their own. that's where iranian rockets come in
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fajr-5
for example that one they have been known to fire before. it's an actual rocket from an actual military. not jerry rigged together. that one we're talking 125kg, so we're starting to get into the discussion range we're talking about
they have a lot more shitty qassam rockets than anything else. this is evident by the amount of damage the average rocket does when it lands in israel - virtually nothing. they have to send like 150 rockets to kill 1 israeli
So I was talking about the faked facebook post but instead your talking about a social media influencer and trying to make it sound like he is some israeli official, I will just say its a meaningless point then. Hamas and islamic jihad has been hitting israel with rockets forever and I see damage just like and worse than the hospital. Trying to say israel used a really small bomb rather than it being one of those rockets is ridiculous. That being said I don't think there is enough proof to say either way. But lets say for some reason a madman knows for sure what really happened and he has me tied up with a gun to my head and will shoot me If I don't get the answer right to the question of if it was israel that hit that hospital. I would say no. It would be my best chance at living. Now queing folks saying they will shoot me given the hypothetical I put up.
He's part of Israeli government. Netanyahu hired him. He was popular influencer and became government propagandist.
I didn't say Israel used small bomb. I'm saying at hospital the damage was from bomb at least 250lb payload. Majority of Hamas rockets are much less. They only have a handful of the big ones that could do the damage at the hospital.
Show me a Hamas rocket that has killed more than 100 people.
Im not looking for an amount of people but here is one that is about the same looking damage wise as the hospital. https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021/05/13/world/13israel-gaza-briefing8/merlin_187692402_c10cd55b-77b2-4d8c-97ac-da207cd8d533-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale . I have not been able to find any resource that says he works for the israeli government.
https://m.youtube.com/shorts/MvogHimGuWo
Here is Netanyahu at his wedding congratulating him and making the statement: "he works for me"
At this point, can you admit I wasn't telling "straight up lies"? Has providing sources for my claims given me any credibility? Because you accused me of being a liar, I would like to say
Anyhow..
Hamas has rockets that are powerful. For example, the Iranian supplied onces that go up to 125kg can do much more damage than the picture you sent. A well placed 125kg bomb can topple a building.
It's a question of the average. In the last 20 years, Hamas has killed less than 100 Israeli civilians with rockets. They've fired thousands of rockets. Most of them are going to be the Qammas ~20kg ones. People get injured but you have to be unlucky to get killed.
This is what I mean. If Hamas sends out 9 small rockets (which is the majority of their supply) and then 1 big rocket, the more likely outcome is that one of the small ones fail. Simply because there are many more of them. For the damage we saw at the hospital, it would have to be a big one.
oh this is super misleading. Really. Here is a celeb at a wedding of another celeb. They could even be related but that does not make him part of the government. You can technically say its not lying but your initial bullet points are as much lying as israel has done around these things. You used the term IDF digital spokesman because the guy is at a wedding. So every palestinian that has been at a wedding with hamas or islamic jihad or other terrorist groups is fair game because hey they were at a wedding. Funny thing is if anything sends me to the israel side of whos telling the truth its social media folks like yourself.
He works for the Israeli Government. Netanyahu is his direct boss. His job is to produce online content that shows the Israeli government in a positive light.
It is not a celeb meeting a celeb at a wedding. When I get home I'll find my bookmark and send you. I'm not trying to lie or mislead. You are very skeptical of me - which you should be because everybody is full of shit these days
But this guy is Israeli government employee. My theory is that he was told to send that at a specific time (he even had a little "too bad so sad we had to kill a few civilians because Hamas" ready to go), but then Israelis realized the world was about to freak out about the hospital so they quickly tried to cover up.. but that's pure speculation without any basis in evidence
I just think because he posted it so quick and there was no reuters article.
ok yeah. show me something more definitive on his employment and that will help a lot. It can't be from a web journal where their reporting all goes one way though. Israeli government website, npt, bbc, ruiters or something.
Math only provides accurate conclusions if the starting assumptions are correct. If you put bullshit in, you get bullshit out.
That explains the bullshit
didn't it land in a parking lot? in the pics of the npr article it was at least a building-length away from the hospital
here's a map of the area showing a rough radius of what the explosion damaged
we can see the center is somewhere around the parking lot. however, there is damage to the southern roofs of the buildings 45m away. so while perhaps the center radius of the explosion was on top of the parking lot, the reach of the bomb certainly touched the hospital
however, the reason it killed so many people (i think 500 is probably exaggerated for propaganda, real number probably closer to ~200) is because a lot of people were sheltering outside this hospital around that parking lot. for example west of the parking lot there were many people sleeping on blankets and such. people on the second story of the hospital also got killed.
it's really hard to get an objective view of the situation right now because the propaganda wings of both sides are out in full force.
here's a video by aljazeera- https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1714984258358391057
coincidentally the only news outlet that caught the whole thing live
Yeah and that's made significantly more challenging when you begin from a position of "blame Israel" and outright lie about multiple "facts"
There is no way you are both closely following the situation (as you imply) and also believe this to be true
Truth comes more readily when you stop lying to confirm your own biases