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this post was submitted on 09 Nov 2023
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I suspect Hamas's attack will cost Palestine many lives and more land but will not lead to a greater war. Every other time their Arab neighbors went to war for the Palestinians it did not work out well for them; Iran is likely to continue to put pressure on Israel via Hezbollah rather than blow their load with an all-out attack and lose their regional bargaining chip.
This may have stalled recognition by Saudi Arabia but things will normalize again once Gaza is pacified. Israel and the US are better international allies to have than Palestine.
Not just didn’t work out for them. The PLO turned around and tried to overthrow two of the neighboring countries: Jordan in 1970 and Lebanon in the 80s.
Turns out a mass terror attack on a nation rarely benefits the attacker or the nation that was attacked, normally with the attacker coming away worse than their better armed opponent.
It's basically 9/11 all over again. But on a smaller scale and with a Middle Eastern nation far happier to be brutal on the targeted side.
Saudi is probably more annoyed at Hamas for getting in the way of their plans than they are considering cutting off their deals.
I wouldn't use 9/11 as an example, considering that Saudi Arabia, whose nationals formed the majority of 9/11 attackers and who heavilly promoted and promotes the radical Sunni Islam sect (Wahabism) that inspired said attackers, was just fine, whilst Iraq which has nothing to do with it was invaded.
At this point it is possible that Iran actually plays a role of pacifier with Hezbollah. If conflict is to expand, Iran might get its weapon and centrifuge factories destroyed. It does not need that. It gets no any advantage out of this and with possibility of US being involved it risks additional sanctions.