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this post was submitted on 14 Jul 2023
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No Stupid Questions
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No such thing. Ask away!
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You're expecting something like the Digg to Reddit mass emigration. That likely will never happen again, the conditions for that are gone. What's happening is what i predicted for years, people are moving away from the site but not going to a single "replacement" place as there's just nothing like it, but to many. Be it the Fediverse, Discord, Facebook and related properties, various chats, even forums and freaking IRC.
And it's also clear it's not going to be a single massive exodus, but a slow decay over a long time. The site will still be alive ten years from now, like Livejournal and other relics of the past are still technically alive, but will slowly fade from relevance.
And one important thing: Sites like that depend on a few users, the so-called 90-9-1 rule explains it well, only a tiny, tiny percentage of users of the site produce the content it needs to survive, and they're precisely the ones the administration pissed off. And not only that, but it depends on the moderators, without them the site would devolve to a sewer in no time, and they too have been shafted by the administration. A good portion of them have left the site for good, and the hit will be perceived in time, as they cannot be replaced easily.
Everything that made the site good is dying or dead, let it die, or just survive as a zombie. It will become a cesspool of reposts, recycled content and garbage, and any user that creates good content that still remains there will eventually leave at seeing what the site will turn into.
Digg to Reddit wasn't a single mass exodus either. It took years, even after the digg redesign. There were still plenty of people left on digg complaining how reddit's UI sucked, was super confusing, and people would eventually come crawling back. The redesign was just the beginning of the end, just like this API thing will probably be the beginning of the end for reddit too
Also digg peaked at maybe 8 million users which is a much more manageable migration.