Reddit has been dying for a while.

Subreddits like AskScience, that it was famous for, are now shells of what they were because the real scientists who put serious time into that subreddit decided they were done wasting that time. This situation is at least a year old, it predates the protest.

You can see this same dynamic across the site. Places that were once vibrant are slowing down, the flood of posts becoming a trickle. Bots are making most of the posts on big subs. Smaller subs that used to hop with human posts are where you can see the truth. It's not normal for a sub with 500k subscribers to see 10 posts in a week. You see that more often, now.

The truth is that Reddit was always small potatoes. It feels like a big deal when you're there, but it's not. The real user numbers are on TikTok, and Instagram, who each have up to a billion users depending on where you get a number. Reddit is barely there, as social media rankings go. There are people with more views on a YouTube video than Reddit has users. Reddit is an also-ran social media site. It's really not a competitor. It's just easy to steal from, because text.

Reddit has long had a bad reputation as a shitty, toxic place. Habitual Redditors don't know this, not really, you have to talk to outsiders. People aren't that interested in coming to Reddit, they just want answers to their Google searches. It's not a recipe for growth.

Now the true power users, who provide those answers, are moving away from both Reddit and Google, speaking of a company who best watch its step. A lot of people are starting to talk about Google search the way they talked about Reddit search, which never did get good.

Reddit doesn't have that far to fall, is what I'm saying. There isn't a mass exodus, though. You're seeing a late spasm from a steady tide that has been going out for years. 10 years is a looooong fuckin time for a social platform to be around, they start to rot after the first or second year. Reddit has been rotten for some time.

I see a lot of people, here, and elsewhere, trying to act dismissive about the protests, or about how important the moderators were, but the site's entire business model depended on hundreds, even thousands of people doing a ton of real labor for absolutely free. If they've decided to take an "everyone's replaceable" attitude and treat volunteers like employees, they'll pay. It'll be their IPO sagging down to a couple dollars as they limp to bankruptcy, or purchase, but they'll pay. I swear I'll have to buy a couple shares as a collectible.

I'm putting it down as yet another well-earned reminder that you have no business building anything that matters to you on a platform that other people own, it is worth the five minutes a day that it takes to post on it, and no more.

Do not make a job of it, ever, unless that job pays you and pays you so well that people think that you're really a stripper and your job title is just a cover story. "Social Media Manager", gotta be code for OF, bro.

That's how much money you should be making doing labor for a multimillion-dollar corporation. It was fuckin Conde Nast for a hot minute. If the boss can just take your mod and your community away, then you only ever worked there, for free. You were never building a community, you were building their property, for free. You have to stop doing that, and you have to stop presenting it as a virtuous act, unless some fundamental things change.

If you're going to put a lot of work in for your own reasons, then you owe it to yourself to do it under your own control, or not at all.

I see an opportunity on the Fediverse to start from the old model of internetting and jump off to something new that just looks old, where it makes sense to put that work in, but for now it is what it is.

Reddit still lives, like Theoden cobwebbed in his throne, but nobody will come and banish Wormtongue. It's still gonna take years for that old man to die.

Fuckin Yahoo isn't anywhere close to dead. Neither is Digg. Well, maybe Digg.

The thing we North Americans are always a bit too arrogant about is if Reddit somehow gets big in India, or Brazil, then they don't need us, and we'll never know because we don't speak the language. So it's gonna take time for Reddit to fuck that up, they got options.

But don't be too dismissive about the idea of "mass exodus". Digg lost most of its userbase, literally overnight, and it was because of shitty ads. If the only app you can use now is the app that sucks and serves lots of shitty ads in your face, that will do it. People aren't that habitual. It is very, very easy to leave a social site.

I quit TikTok over one shitty post that was my last straw, you just delete the app and forget about it. Yet TikTok is social media heroin. Reddit is a bunch of dudes yelling about shit that isn't worth yelling about. It is much easier to quit. The phone app era means once you delete, it's gone, and it helps to break the cycle. It can and probably will happen, 90% of the remaining users will drop it like it's covered in bedbugs, they just have to stick huge unskippable ads in everyone's face, and they're fucked.

I just don't think that is going to make the splash you'd expect.

But no, no mass exodus, not yet. I'd keep the popcorn bowl close by if I were you, though. I will not put it past them to turn an IPO into a fail state.