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Inside the 'arms race' between YouTube and ad blockers
(www.engadget.com)
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I think the ad black box is where it will end up. A lot of people would probably not see that as much better than having an ad at that point, though. They don't even really need to make something impenetrable, they just need to keep breaking adblock so much so that people no longer see it as reliable and adblock developers grow increasingly tired of rewriting. So far, I can only recall a handful of times where adblock has straight up stopped working on YouTube.
I actively mute ads where I can't block them. It'd be annoying but I'd settle for a mute+black box if it was my only option.