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this post was submitted on 04 Dec 2023
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agi is not around the corner. not by a long shot. We have simbly automated bullshit generators
For AGI to be a thing, we first need to have the computer be able to communicate with us.
LLMs are just the first step, an important one at that.
It is like claiming babies learning to talk are bullshit generators, before you know it they surpass you in every way shape and form.
That really has not been my experience with ChatGPT4+. It is getting very good and catches me off guard daily with it level of understanding. Sure it makes mistakes and it laughably off base at times, but so are we all as we learn about a complex world.
It's only a bullshit generator if you use it for bullshit generation...
We've automated ways to accelerate problem solving, and now that it's able to actually reason (AI that can actually do math is a big deal). That acceleration should increase significantly.
Such acceleration can make things like AGI actually around the corner, with that corner being 5-10 years from now. Though I think we have too many hardware limitations ATM, which will definitely hamper progress & capability.
But with companies like Microsoft seriously considering moves like "Nuclear Reactors to power AI" , issues with power consumption may not be as much of a barrier...
That's like saying parrots are only a few generations away from being as intelligent as humans because they can already immitate human speech.
Clearly immitation does not require cognition and by all evidence so far does not lead to it.
Why do you think parrots aren't intelligent or cognitive?
They are but do you think one will be able to help sort information, misinformation, and disinformation on Facebook any time soon? Or even have a real conversation? They are cognitive but mimicking our speech doesn't mean they are close to our level.