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this post was submitted on 17 Jul 2023
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The good news is this means many of the jobs AI is "taking" will probably come back when people realize it isn't actually as good as the hype implied
Not quite. It's more that a job that once had 5-10 people and perhaps an "expert" supervisor will just be whittled down to the expert. Similarly, factories used to employ hundreds and a handful of supervisors to produce a widget. Now, they can employ a couple of supervisors and a handful of robot technicians to produce more widgets.
The problem is, where do those experts come from? Expertise is earned through experience, and if all the entry-level jobs go away then eventually you'll run out of experts.
Education. If education was free this wouldn't be a problem, you could take a few more years at university to gain that experience instead of working in a junior role.
This is the problem with capitalism, if you take too much without giving back, eventually there's nothing left to take.
You don't get experts from education. You get experts from job experience (after education).
You definitely don't get experts from unemployed people, or from people working to the bone doing menial labor for minimum wage.
Education is a broad term, that could include apprenticeships where you do get real work experience. And education would have to change a lot in all areas. The point is, the government can support people to gain that experience, the problem is that right now it isn't. It's common to exit just a bachelors degree with crippling amounts of debt.
And it's viewed more positively in the society to have a bullshit Bs or Ms than a (usefull) trade degree
I wasn't commenting on what type of education is better or worse than another. The point is that we need to support people through education.
It’s just that I fear that realisation may not filter down.
You honestly see it a lot in industry. Companies pay $$$ for things that don’t really produce results. Or what they consider to be “results” changes. There are plenty of examples of lowering standards and lowering quality in virtually every industry. The idea that people will realise the trap of AI and reverse is not something I’m enthusiastic about.
In many ways AI is like pseudoscience. It’s a black box. Things like machine learning don’t tell you “why” it works. It’s just a black box. ChatGPT is just linear regression on language models.
So the claim that “good science” prevails is patently false. We live in the era of progressive scientific education and yet everywhere we go there is distrust in science, scientific method, critical thinking, etc.
Do people really think that the average Joe is going to “wake up” to the limitations of AI? I fear not.