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this post was submitted on 29 Dec 2023
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The AP itself doesn't trust the results enough to declare a winner.
Shadow Inc., which both Buttigieg and Biden payed for services in 2019, shat the bed and ruined the caucus. Those results and the recanvass were riddled with errors and inconsistencies, ranging from bad math to bad handwriting to bad head counting. It's not trustworthy.
Now, for my speculation: the Party sabotaged the Iowa caucus to stop an outsider from getting momentum in Iowa. Maybe the plan was always to just crash the caucus so it didn't matter, maybe Iowa was always supposed to be sacrificed, but if Bernie had won Iowa and then proceeded to win all the states leading up to South Carolina I don't think Biden would have won. There's a clear motive.
And what we do know is Obama played kingmaker by getting almost the entire field of candidates to drop out, including the supposed Iowa winner Buttigieg, to endorse Biden and keep the outsider from recovering after South Carolina.
Part ordinary party-politics, part suspicious dealing with Shadow Inc., and the outsider was kept from winning. I know is there's no hope for me in that party, because if another outsider comes they will be stopped because the party will circle the wagons.
Especially now Iowa has been discarded. No more first in the nation, no more caucus, we're just another trash redstate to be ignored.
That is, at least, a conspiracy. Not one that stands up to scrutiny though. Shadow Inc did screw up. Unfortunately, if you look at state level things in many, many prior elections, that's not uncommon. State level voting systems are tacked together, poorly funded crapshoots.
And your claims about Obama doesn't have anything to do with the voters. If the people who supported those candidates supported Bernie as a replacement, then that's how they would have voted. But they didn't. He in fact lost worse than in the previous election.
The fact that the earliest states in the primary have long been those that don't represent the general Democrat voting public has been a complaint for years, if not decades. So changing what states are at the beginning has been something pushed for for years as well.
So your argument is "all state level elections are fucked and Iowa isn't special". That's actually a reasonable counter argument! Maybe all states look shady and corrupt and broken whenever anyone looks at them as closely as people looked at Iowa after the caucus imploded. If that's the case, though, then that's just a further argument for not trusting the elections!
And to clarify, I wasn't claiming Obama playing kingmaker was a conspiracy (although it was in the literal sense of the word i.e. multiple politicians conspiring together to make Biden the nominee by endorsing him). That's actually just normal party politics. It just shows that there's actually no hope for an outsider to win a party nomination, which is to be expected.