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submitted 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) by MeatsOfRage@lemmy.world to c/nostupidquestions@lemmy.world

Ok so here's the rules

  • I just bet on red every time
  • I start with 1 dollar
  • every time I lose, I triple my previous bet
  • every time I win I restart

I'm going to simulate 10 games

  • Game 1 - Bet $1 Lose
  • Game 2 - Bet $3 Lose
  • Game 3 - Bet $9 Win $18
  • Game 4 - Bet $1 Lose
  • Game 5 - Bet $3 Lose
  • Game 6 - Bet $9 Win $18
  • Game 7 - Bet $1 Lose
  • Game 8 - Bet $3 Lose
  • Game 9 - Bet $9 Lose
  • Game 10 - Bet $18 Win $36

In this simulation I'm losing at a rate of 70%. In reality the lose rate is closer to 52%. I put in $54 but I'm walking away with $72, basically leaving the building with $18.

Another example. Let's pretend I walk in with $100,000 to bet with. I lose my first 10 games and win the 11th.

  • 1 lose
  • 3 lose
  • 9 lose
  • 27 lose
  • 81 lose
  • 243 lose
  • 729 lose
  • 2187 lose
  • 6561 lose
  • 19683 lose
  • 59049 win $118098

$88573 spent out of pocket, $118098 won

Walk out with roughly $29525.

I get most casinos won't let you be that high but it's a pretty extreme example anyway, the likelyhood of losing 10/11 games on 48% odds is really unlikely.

So help me out here, what am I missing?

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[-] ZagamTheVile@lemmy.world 41 points 10 months ago

Remember, betting red isn't a 50/50 chance of winning. 0 and 00 are green. So your odds at winning are about 48% with 0, or 47% with 00. Same with odd/even bets. There's a reason casinos add the 0's. They aren't in the business to give you money.

[-] davidgro@lemmy.world 3 points 10 months ago

That's a reason OP went with tripling the bet instead of the more common doubling when people independently discover this system.

[-] ZagamTheVile@lemmy.world 2 points 10 months ago

Yes but a 45% win chance is the same long term losing plan no matter how much you bet. I could bet 10 times the amount every time I lose and I'll still have a 45% chance of winning.

[-] davidgro@lemmy.world 1 points 10 months ago

Yes that is true... if you end at a "random" point (running out of money for example). But if you can always end at a win (particularly a large one after a string of many losses) then that changes things, the odds become much less relevant because you are manipulating them.*

The problem is that consistently doing so would require genuinely unlimited money and no betting limits, since the number of losses-that-can-happen-in-a-row is itself unlimited. With that little detail the Martingale system would actually work.
Then again if you have unlimited money then why bother to gamble?

*(Actually I sorta take back my first comment in this thread, the odds aren't why to triple, just growing the pot faster each win is)

this post was submitted on 16 Jan 2024
111 points (90.5% liked)

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