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this post was submitted on 22 Jan 2024
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Very true.
Assuming that Trump wins and somehow withdrawals us from NATO and only the EU fights Russia, there is going to be a ton of suck that is going to smack the US in the face after that, really quick.
Here is a grim outlook, but is something that some right wing groups really want. It's either a setup for a civil war or a dictatorship. Or both. This is a scenario, not what I believe will happen as it's kind of extreme.
Global trade is a real thing and many goods and services that Americans use are provided by the EU. A few major drug companies are based in Europe, so that is a start, so those are going to be the first to go if the EU withdrawals from any trade agreements.
Many people don't realize that a great number of components that the US uses for its weapons originate in the EU. This includes everything from missiles to basic components used in civilian firearms. (Gunpowder, primers, brass and bullets to name a few. It's a lot. The US hasn't fully recovered from the pandemic shortages in that regard, either.)
China will likely put heavy restrictions on exports to the US in support of Russia. While this could be beneficial to the US in the long run, it will take years for the US to develop its own manufacturing to produce the quantity of cheap plastic disposable shit that Americans crave. Basic electronics prices will skyrocket since the availability of fake components will tank.
Honestly, I could see the EU restricting business and exports to a much larger degree. Between the EU and China, they could completely tank the US economy and kill our stock markets. This will have global repercussions as the ouroboros must feed.
This is a real end of the world kind of view, but the pandemic showed us how vulnerable global markets really are and how stupid humanity can get in some cases. It puts some absurd scenarios in very close proximity.
I don't think the EU would restrict exports to the USA so much as be unable to provide them in a war.
I also think that China would push its claim on Taiwan while Russia invades the EU to push the USA into a diplomatic corner.