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Nikki Haley PAC Out Raises Donald Trump by Millions: Report
(themessenger.com)
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this post was submitted on 26 Jan 2024
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politics
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The Republican party is desperately trying to stay alive by moving away from the crazy but it is still too strong.
Can't win a primary without him, can't win a general with him.
You'd think so but he is leading in the polls and the bettting markets.
I think turnout amongst young voters will be lower than last time for Biden since they have been brainwashed by TikTok on the Gaza issue. Even though the lesser of two evils is clearly Biden especially on Israel and Gaza.
So unless a couple of key states kick him off the ballot Trump will win the electoral college vote. While losing the popular vote by the widest margin to date.
First off, ignore the betting markets. They had Trump winning in 2020, too. The kind of people who put money on this stuff aren't the clear-headed, rational sort.
Second, the polls are broken right now. They've been consistently under-counting Democratic votes for years, due to the difficulty of conducting scientifically sound polls in the age of cellphones and the death of land-lines. Seriously, look at polling for the special elections and midterms since 2018 - it's practically homogenous. In election after election, Democrats overperformed the polls.
I'm not saying we don't have to fight like hell - we absolutely do. But we don't have to lose hope, especially with almost a year to go before the first general election ballots are cast.
Broken is a stretch but we do know which way they leaned and that's not a good sign considering Biden's numbers were overstated.
https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2021/03/02/what-2020s-election-poll-errors-tell-us-about-the-accuracy-of-issue-polling/
It's not hopeless but the margins are thin, Trump won by 77,000 votes in 2016 and lost by 81,000 in 2020. Biden doesn't have a lot of slack to play with and he's going to be hit hard from all sides including his own thanks to 10/7.
Between inflation, "the border", Ukraine funding, Israel and every country with a vested interest against America influencing people online more than ever before it's gearing up to be a disaster.
I didn't cite Biden's election, I specifically cited midterms and special elections. We know Trump supporting voter turnout was higher than expected in 2020. So was Biden turnout, though not by as much.
But now we're three years in, inflation is down, the economy is robust, and there's not nearly as much reason to be full of doom and gloom as an addiction to pundits would have you believe.
Breathe. Hope is not lost.