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this post was submitted on 20 Jul 2023
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Technology
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It makes my blood boil when people dismiss the risks of ASI without any notable counterargument. Do you honestly think something a billion times smarter than a human would struggle to kill us all if it decided it wanted to? Why would it need a terminator to do it? A virus would be far easier. And who's to say how quickly AI will advance now that AI is directly assisting progress? How can you possibly have any certainty on any timelines or risks at all?
Put down the crack, there is a huge ass leap between general intelligence and the LLM of the week.
Next you're going to tell me cleverbot is going to launch nukes. We are still incredibly far from general intelligence ai.
I never said how long I expected it to take, how do you know we even disagree there? But like, is 50 years a long time to you? Personally anything less than 100 would be insanely quick. The key point is I don't have a high certainty on my estimates. Sure, might be perfectly reasonable it takes more than 50, but what chance is there it's even quicker? 0.01%? To me that's a scary high number! Would you be happy having someone roll a dice with a 1 in 10000 chance of killing everyone? How low is enough?
I'll be dead.
The odds are higher that Russia nukes your living area.
Well I wont be, and just because one thing might be higher probability than another, doesn't mean it's the only thing worth worrying about.
The likelihood of an orca coming out of your asshole is just as likely as a meteor coming from space and blowing up your home.
Both could happen, but are you going to shape your life around whether or not they occur?
Your concern of AI should absolutely be pitted towards the governments and people using it. AI, especially in its current form, will not be doing a human culling.
Humans do that well enough already.