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this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2023
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Trying to constantly remind myself that none of us are immune to propaganda, and that it would be really easy for this scenario to be misrepresented as a clean-sweep against the Russian military. Wagner's def gonna cause serious problems but I'd frankly be shocked if this ended with a successful coup or any meaningful change
Even if they win, this dude is a literal war monger fascist. Not better or worse than Putin.
I have such mixed feelings. Happy that there is visible weakness in Putin's power, which could maybe lead to his eventual removal from power which would be amazing. Very frightening though that the ones replacing him might have the same goals as Putin, except this time, actually be competent at their jobs. That's a horrible outlook for Ukraine. Oh man......
The guy has gone on the record stating that he thinks the war in Ukraine was not justified and was done simply to please the defense ministry. Who knows what he would get into as a leader, but at least with him in charge Ukraine should be less worried.
Likely to see de-escalation of the war in Ukraine if he succeedes. But I don't have hope for a whole sale withdrawal.
My guess is at a minimum he trys to hold Crimea
Wouldn't that be the best case for Russia? Take out military leadership, get someone else to be president, defend Crimea, try to get soldiers out of the rest of Ukraine, and get support for peace from the international community?
Essentially just a change in leadership for a, fortunately, abysmal failure.
Right now it looks as if he wants to maintain status quo, walk up there, and have this done with in a few days.
Yup.
With rumors the defense minister has been detained coupled with Wagner blaming the defense minister for the lies justifying the invasion.... MAYBE this is some weird way for Putin to save face/stay alive while pulling out of eastern Ukraine?
But that sounds like bullshit, this whole thing is getting weirder by the moment right now. Smells like a lot of misinformation flowing from all sides right now.
Suppose Putin is in an information vacuum, like I've seen reported a few few times, then it doesn't seem as as crazy. Still batshit insane but not as crazy. Cool to think about though.