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this post was submitted on 07 Feb 2024
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Even if the Supreme Court upholds the removal of Trump from the Colorado ballot, it isn't immediately over for him, unfortunately. He won in 2016 without Colorado.
That said, it would be a precedent, and other Secretaries of State could start removing him with confidence. The question remains: would enough states remove him to make winning impossible? Which is to ask: how many battleground states (or even red states) would remove him?
Most, if not all, of the legal talking heads on both sides of the aisle (not counting MAGA morons looking for soundbytes) have said that the SC upholding Colorado's ruling that he engaged in insurrection and is therefore disqualified from the ballot would be binding nationwide, which means he'd be disqualified everywhere as the Supreme Court would be confirming that he is Constitutionally disqualified from office. He wouldn't be able to stay in the race at all. If the Supreme Court overturns Colorado, then Trump stays on everywhere.
It's why so many states that are also weighing in on the subject have either refused to rule on the matter pending the SC decision, or have stayed their own rulings pending the SC decision. He's either going to be on it everywhere or nowhere.
Losing MI, WI, and NV would kill his campaign. Those are probably the most likely swing states I could see moving forward with removing him. It won't take a lot with how razor thin the margins are.