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this post was submitted on 11 Feb 2024
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I did the math a few years ago because I couldn't find anyone else who had published it. This is rough and IANAM (mathmagicman).
Every single day 8,000 boomers and above die, and 12,000 people turn 18 and those numbers are actually accelerating. If you use existing data to estimate conservative/liberal and likely voters within those groups it works out to a delta of 10,000 per day on a national scale. That's 5,000 votes switching every single day. That might not seem like alot. Because it really isn't. Out of 155 million votes cast, 10,000 is .006 percent. But here's the thing. It's cumulative. And it just doesn't stop. It is relentless. it's 300k a month, 3.6 million per year. And that pace is accelerating. Between 2020 and 2024 it's a 15 million vote difference. By 2028 it's 30 million.
It used to be that people age into conservatism. But that is not happening with millennials. The demographics are changing, and changing quickly. The most conservative group in the country is dying. While the most liberal group is rising.
We just have to hold on to democracy for a few more years. This will all be behind us. Another 10k today.
And that explains why Republicans have given up on democracy. Thanks for doing the math.
Interesting. But I think there is also a conversion from left to right with age. We are making conservatives as fast as we are losing them. They are converted because we all become fearful with age and Republican mass media preys on that with FUD.
That's not happening with Millennials. You can debate why, but the data is clear.
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/financial-times-millennials-conservatives-age-b2253902.html
This chart in particular is extremely telling.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1608746369505976323
Fascinating thank you! This is also encouraging for both the US and UK.