171
How China Miscalculated Its Way to a Baby Bust: A missile scientist used mathematical models to push the nation’s one-child policy. Its legacy is proving hard to shake. (www.wsj.com)
submitted 9 months ago by MicroWave@lemmy.world to c/news@lemmy.world
51 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Non-paywall link

China’s baby bust is happening faster than many expected, raising fears of a demographic collapse. And coping with the fallout may now be complicated by miscalculations made more than 40 years ago.

The rapid shift under way today wasn’t projected by the architects of China’s one-child policy—one of the biggest social experiments in history, instituted in 1980. At the time, governments around the world feared overpopulation would hold back economic growth. A Moscow-trained missile scientist led the push for China’s policy, based on tables of calculations that applied mathematical models used to calculate rocket trajectories to population growth.

Four decades later, China is aging much earlier in its development than other major economies did. The shift to fewer births and more elderly citizens threatens to hold back economic growth. In a generation that grew up without siblings, young women are increasingly reluctant to have children—and there are fewer of them every year. Beijing is at a loss to change the mindset brought about by the policy.

Births in China fell by more than 500,000 last year, according to recent government data, accelerating a population drop that started in 2022. Officials cited a quickly shrinking number of women of childbearing age—more than three million fewer than a year earlier—and acknowledged “changes in people’s thinking about births, postponement of marriage and childbirth.”

Some researchers argue the government underestimates the problem, and the population began to shrink even earlier.

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[-] RoboRay@kbin.social 26 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

Good news everyone! We all DO have this problem... It's just most obvious in China because they industrialized and urbanized more rapidly than anyone else AND had this stupid legal policy.

Industrialization, urbanization and improving healthcare also significantly drops births, to below the replacement rate of 2.1. The whole world is on this path, with China, Japan, South Korea, Germany and Russia leading the way.

[-] AA5B@lemmy.world 11 points 9 months ago

And before anyone thinks different, the US is on this path too. Our population is still growing because of immigration, but birth rate is well below replacement value and dropping

[-] acceptable_pumpkin@lemmy.world 4 points 9 months ago

Hence one of the miriad of reasons why immigration is such a good policy for a country. Attract younger skilled workers who directly contribute to the economy.

[-] AA5B@lemmy.world 2 points 9 months ago

I’m generally optimistic about the future but this is a place where I’m not. Specifically for the US, immigration has always been a strength. From cultural distinctiveness to the bulk of labor at times to innovation and competitiveness, from arts to science e to technology, people have been attracted to the US from all over the world and have made this place much better in so many ways. Why are so many people trying to ruin it? Why is there such fear? Why are you taking something that’s clearly a strength and trying to ruin it for outselves?

[-] Flumpkin@slrpnk.net 2 points 9 months ago

There is an interesting bit in this channel 5 video. People all over the world have this false image of the US as a paradise and prosperity and freedom, but the lived experience of immigrants is quite harsh in recent years.

this post was submitted on 13 Feb 2024
171 points (95.2% liked)

News

23424 readers
1750 users here now

Welcome to the News community!

Rules:

1. Be civil

Attack the argument, not the person. No racism/sexism/bigotry. Good faith argumentation only. This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban. Do not respond to rule-breaking content; report it and move on.

2. All posts should contain a source (url) that is as reliable and unbiased as possible and must only contain one link.

Obvious right or left wing sources will be removed at the mods discretion. We have an actively updated blocklist, which you can see here: https://lemmy.world/post/2246130 if you feel like any website is missing, contact the mods. Supporting links can be added in comments or posted seperately but not to the post body.

3. No bots, spam or self-promotion.

Only approved bots, which follow the guidelines for bots set by the instance, are allowed.

4. Post titles should be the same as the article used as source.

Posts which titles don’t match the source won’t be removed, but the autoMod will notify you, and if your title misrepresents the original article, the post will be deleted. If the site changed their headline, the bot might still contact you, just ignore it, we won’t delete your post.

5. Only recent news is allowed.

Posts must be news from the most recent 30 days.

6. All posts must be news articles.

No opinion pieces, Listicles, editorials or celebrity gossip is allowed. All posts will be judged on a case-by-case basis.

7. No duplicate posts.

If a source you used was already posted by someone else, the autoMod will leave a message. Please remove your post if the autoMod is correct. If the post that matches your post is very old, we refer you to rule 5.

8. Misinformation is prohibited.

Misinformation / propaganda is strictly prohibited. Any comment or post containing or linking to misinformation will be removed. If you feel that your post has been removed in error, credible sources must be provided.

9. No link shorteners.

The auto mod will contact you if a link shortener is detected, please delete your post if they are right.

10. Don't copy entire article in your post body

For copyright reasons, you are not allowed to copy an entire article into your post body. This is an instance wide rule, that is strictly enforced in this community.

founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
rjc@lemmy.world
Thekingoflorda@lemmy.world
Tenthrow@lemmy.world
JonsJava@lemmy.world
gedaliyah@lemmy.world
little_cow@lemmy.world
jeffw@lemmy.world
enu@lemmy.world